A good old AFC West rivalry is renewed Sunday night when the back-on-track Kansas City Chiefs lay 10 points at home against a Denver Broncos squad that is desperate, unpredictable and seemingly full of fight despite being shorthanded all year.
Who has the edge?
Let’s look at both sides.
WHY THE BRONCOS WILL COVER
The Chiefs are famously pretty awesome in prime time. However, they’ve failed to cover in five of their last six prime-time games. Meanwhile, the Broncos have been feisty this year, especially away from home.
And they’ve defeated quality opponents in the Cowboys and Chargers in recent weeks. This is a critical matchup with a familiar foe, and the backdoor cover could be a factor as well. Trend Dummy leans on the current KC 2-10 ATS overall run and the fact they have failed to cover their past 4 times in this situation of double-digit faves.
WHY THE CHIEFS WILL COVER
They’ve won 11 consecutive matchups with Denver, three of the last four of which were blowouts. They’ve also averaged 38.3 points per game in their last three post-bye outings and have that extra-rest advantage here. Plus, we know how awesome Andy Reid has always been following a bye (he’s 22-2 in his career under those circumstances).
BRONCOS CHIEFS PREDICTION
A 10-point spread (bet down to -9.5 as of Friday) is risky if you’re on the fave, especially in a divisional matchup. But Kansas City really does have Denver’s number and those recent trends are hard to deny. This might not necessarily be a blowout, but the Chiefs should take care of business by multiple scores.
Denver Kansas City Prop – Anytime TD pick
Odds as of Saturday at FanDuel
Noah Fant +330
The Chiefs struggle to slow down opposing tight ends
Byron Pringle +340
He has taken over WR #3 on the Chiefs
Mecole Hardman +380
These odds are too good to pass up
Chiefs Broncos Betting Trends
Broncos are 0-11 SU (2-9 ATS) in their last 11 games against Kansas City
Broncos are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games played in Week 13.
UNDER is 9-2 Denver’s last 11 games.
Chiefs are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games at home.
Chiefs failed to cover 4 straight as double-digit favorites