Oct 13, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II (2) leaves the field in the first quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Denver LA Chargers Picks, Week 16 TNF OVER

Money is coming in on Denver as rookie QB Bo Nix starts getting sharp support in the Week 16 Thursday Nighter.

The Broncos usually lose as underdogs (+2.5 here at FanDuel) with 2-7 SU mark in past nine games and the Chargers usually cover as chalk lately (8-3 ATS). There are UNDER trends here (10-1 past 11 meetings here) and in Chargers divisional games (12-4 past 16).

Denver rides a 10-2 ATS streak while the Chargers are lame within the AFC West losing 10 of 13 recent divisional tilts.

Denver LA Chargers Picks: Odds LAC -2.5, Total 42 | Matchup Report

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Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Denver has covered five straight overall and 6 of 7 on the road and the line has already budged off the key number -3 and could dip lower. That means smart money on the roadies.

Bettors clearly did not like what they saw as Tampa Bay romped on the Chargers and Nix will look to do exactly what Baker Mayfield did.

They are a live dog here on a short week.

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

Yes Denver has won four straight but against who? Colts, Browns, Raiders, Falcons, a who’s who of NFL dog shit. The Chargers are different although they looked bad against the Bucs last week.

The Broncos don’t pack much bite historically as underdogs and LA usually wins SU as favorites. So with the line moving to -2.5, that’s a pretty small spread and tempting for a divisional home team looking to rebound.

Denver LA Chargers picks

The total hasn’t budged off 42 and the question is whether the Charger defense is as bad as it looked last week. If you think it’s anywhere close, you probably figure both teams will get into the 20s and that leans us OVER the total, despite the various UNDER trends. Of note, the OVER is 5-1 the past 6 Chargers games on Thursdays.

Chargers Broncos Betting Trends

UNDER is 10-1 LA Chargers’ last 11 games at home against Denver.

Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games, 6-1 ATS past 7 on road

Chargers are just 3-10 SU past 13 divisional games

UNDER is 12-4 past 16 Chargers divisional games

Broncos are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games played in Week 16.

Broncos are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games as the underdog

OVER is 5-1 LA Chargers’ last 6 games played on a Thursday.

Chargers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as faves

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