Sean Payton returning to New Orleans is the storyline here and gives Broncos bettors some comfort in laying 2.5 points on the road. But it’s the Saints defense and injury situation that really helps the case.
New Orleans could be without their top receivers and will have Spencer Rattler under center on the day they honor former QB Drew Brees at halftime.
So it might be all love and kisses while the Broncos seldom cover as road faves and the Saints seldom cover as home dogs. Who knows? We know.
Broncos Saints Pick: Odds NO +2.5, Total 37 | Matchup Report
Why the Broncos can cover the spread
Denver comes off a loss following a nice little 3-game win streak and their defense is keeping them in every game. And while the offense has struggled under Bo Nix, they face a Saints team that gave up 1,050 yards in total offense the past two weeks.
That should permit some scoring as conquering Super Bowl hero coach Payton returns. New Orleans has lost 9 of 10 SU as home dogs and is terrible on short weeks, failing to cover five in a row and riding a 4-12-1 ATS streak on Thursdays. Going back decades, Denver owns a 9-3 SU mark vs the Saints.
Why the Saints can cover the spread
It can’t get much worse than almost 600 yards of offense allowed vs the Bucs and the Broncos are hardly an offensive juggernaut. And the Broncos have also been lousy on TNF (1-4 ATS past 5) and worse as a road team (6-17 SU past 23).
As a road favorite, Denver hasn’t covered in six tries (0-5-1 ATS) while the Saints have their own feel-good story in honoring Brees. Expect Rattler to lean heavily on Alvin Kamara to stick around in this low-scoring affair.
Broncos Saints Pick
There is a lot going on here and the smart logic seems to point to Denver winning here. But we are shying away from the spread and leaning OVER. The Broncos have no offense, but the Saints have no defense. The number is 37 which is low and we see just enough room to get this game into the 40s, call it 27-13 or something like that,
Denver New Orleans Betting Trends
Broncos are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games against New Orleans.
UNDER is 11-3 past 14 Saints non-conference games
Broncos are 6-17 SU in their last 23 games on the road
Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Thursday.
Broncos are 0-5-1 ATS past 6 games as road favorites
Saints failed to cover 5 straight Thursdays and are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games on short week
Saints 1-9 SU, 2-8 ATS past 10 as home dogs
