The Pittsburgh Steelers are in big trouble. They have lost three straight games by double digits yet are somehow favorites at home against the Denver Broncos.
The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in their last six games as the favorite. However, Mike Tomlin historically has the Steelers playing great football in October. The Steelers are 11-2 SU, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games played in October.
The Broncos lost 23-7 to the Baltimore Ravens last week, handing them their first loss of the season. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater left the game with a concussion and Drew Lock took over but failed to lead the Broncos into the end zone.
As I’m writing this, it looks like Bridgewater is on track to play on Sunday. He is progressing nicely through concussion protocols. The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
Why the Broncos can cover the spread
Even if Bridgewater can’t play on Sunday, I still like Denver’s chances. However, all signs point to him returning to the field, and he has been great through four weeks. Bridgewater is currently second in EPA per play only behind Patrick Mahomes and is 6th in completion percentage. Reminder: The Broncos only gave up a sixth-round pick to get him.
The Steelers’ offense has been atrocious. Ben Roethlisberger has failed to eclipse six yards per attempt in three of his four starts. Football Outsiders has the Steelers ranked 25th in offensive DVOA, and they have failed to reach over 20 points in three straight games. The Broncos’ defense is currently third in yards per play allowed.
Why the Steelers can cover the spread
The Steelers offense has to get going, or this team is in trouble. The AFC North looks like one of the better divisions in football. If they lose four straight, the season might be over rather early.
The Broncos’ pass defense showed some holes last week. Lamar Jackson threw for over 300 yards without turning the ball over. If Pittsburgh’s offensive line can hold off the Broncos pass rush, the Steelers’ talented wide receiver core can get open.
Broncos Steelers Betting Pick
The Steelers allowed A.J Dillon to run for 5.4 yards per carry last week. The Broncos are going to run the ball and control the clock. Broncos cover and win the game outright.
Steelers Broncos Betting Trends
UNDER is 9-3 Denver’s last 12 games.
Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on the road
Last 6 meetings at Pittsburgh all played OVER
Steelers are 11-2 SU, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games played in October.
Steelers are 18-5-2 ATS in their last 25 games played in week 5.
Steelers failed to cover past 6 times as favorites
Props coming soon.