Last week was rock bottom for the Chicago Bears. Well, losing to the Detroit Lions at home might be one level below the rock bottom.
The Bears have not been profitable against their own division recently, bleeding money to the tune of 2-7 ATS. But the Detroit Lions haven’t been much better, winning just once in their last 13 divisional games. Last week, they lost a heartbreaker as Justin Tucker kicked a 66-yard field goal to win with time expiring.
Even though the Lions are 0-3, they have played hard in each game. They were leading over the Green Bay Packers at halftime and came within inches of beating the Baltimore Ravens. It looks like Dan Campbell has the Lions on the right path.
Why Bears can cover the spread
You have to feel bad for Bears fans. The Bears had 47 yards of total offense and only one net passing yard. One passing yard is the fewest since 2009. It was an ugly performance from the Bears’ offense. However, the Lions’ defense is the perfect unit to rebound against.
According to Football Outsiders, the Lions are 31st in defensive DVOA, and more importantly, have the 31st ranked pass defense. If head coach Matt Nagy can’t design a game plan for Justin Fields to succeed against this defense, he should no longer be the head coach.
The Bears’ defense had an under-the-radar good game against the Browns. They sacked Baker Mayfield five times and only allowed 26 points in a game where their offense gave them zero help.
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Why Lions can cover the spread
The Lions have looked much better than their 0-3 record suggests. Even with their defense off to a rough start, they have been in every game so far. Jared Goff has been able to move the ball successfully.
Goff is 13th in the NFL in passing yards, ahead of guys like Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, and Aaron Rodgers. He has exceeded expectations so far, considering the lack of talent around him.
Lions Bears Betting Pick
If Nagy loses this game, he will be fired on Monday. He will regroup this week and get a better game plan. Bears cover the spread, which was down to -2.5 as of Thursday at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Chicago Bears Detroit Lions Props
David Montgomery OVER 73.5 Rushing Yards
The Bears have to utilize Montgomery to get back on track. He will have a big game.
Allen Robinson OVER 4.5 Receptions
How do you get your quarterback comfortable again? Get the ball to your best offensive player.
Jamaal Williams OVER 16.5 Receiving Yards
Kareem Hunt had 74 receiving yards last week against the Bears. Williams will be involved in the passing game.
Lions Bears Betting Trends
Lions are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in week 4.
Lions 1-12 SU in their last 13 divisional games
UNDER is 15-5 Chicago’s last 20 home games.
Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 divisional games
Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when playing as the favorite.
See more Week 4 NFL betting trends in Trend Dummy’s deep database dive.