Feb 5, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; NFC wide receiver CeeDee Lamb of the Dallas Cowboys (88) celebrates a touchdown against the AFC at the 2023 Pro Bowl at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-USA TODAY Sports

Lions Cowboys Picks, OVER, Gibbs Prop

Dallas has won 15 straight at home and own a 24-point margin of victory in home games this season as they host the letdown-prone Detroit Lions on Saturday Night.

The 11-4 Lions clinched the NFC North last week but gave up 411 passing yards to Nick Mullens and needed four turnovers to do it. Not exactly powerful stats heading to Dallas, which at 10-5 needs this win badly for playoff seeding.

Detroit usually loses in Dallas (3-11 SU over the years) but they have been a great bet this season on the road and as an underdog. The line was bet down to 5.5 points by mid Saturday which many Cowboys backers feel is a gift.

Lions Cowboys Picks: Odds DAL -5.5, Total 53.5 | Matchup Report

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Why the Lions can cover the spread

The pressure is off here after clinching the division and the Lions are 7-1 ATS as an underdog and 10-3 ATS as a road team over the past few seasons.

Dallas comes off a pair of road losses to Miami and Buffalo, so they haven’t been dynamic against good teams. The Cowboys have shown themselves susceptible to consistent ground attacks and Detroit will bring this in Week 17.

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

The Lions gave up 411 passing yards to the Vikings – it could be 811 with Dak Prescott firing to his talented playmakers. The Cowboys have been truly dominant at home and they have all the motivation here as well.

Looking at the player props, the oddsmakers think there will be yards a plenty leading to points a plenty and a shootout will favor Dallas because they have the better defense. In such a case, 42-28 still easily covers the number and sends Dallas bettors home happy.

Lions Cowboys Picks

The total is high at 52.5 but this could go OVER by halftime. It won’t surprise us to see both teams in the 30s as Dallas jumps out to a lead and the Lions try to keep up. The 5.5-point spread also looks like a bargain as its hard to imagine the Detroit defense holding Dallas under 40 points so we play the -5.5 as well.

Cowboys Lions Prop Bets

Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 50.5 rushing yards at Draft Kings – the Lions will test the Cowboys run stop right off the hop and the shifty Gibbs is in line for some big plays as the aggressive Dallas pass rush overshoots the run.

Dallas OVER 29.5 points -115 at Draft Kings – the Cowboys have scored 40 six times at home this season and the Detroit pass defense has crumbled in the second half of the season.

Lions Cowboys Betting Trends

Cowboys are 15-0 SU, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games at home

OVER is 9-2 Detroit’s last 11 games vs NFC East teams

Cowboys are 11-3 SU past 14 at home to Lions

Lions are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games

Lions are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games on the road

Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as the underdog.


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