Green Bay is a double-digit home favorite in the Week 2 Monday Nighter and this situation has produced a steady stream of UNDER results over the years. The Packers have played 8 straight UNDERs as a double-digit favorite while the Lions have played six straight UNDERs as double-digit underdogs.
So while the UNDER is the biggest trend angle, the Packers were 11-2 SU last year when slated as the moneyline favorite, but thar did not come to fruition last week against the Saints. Green Bay got embarrassed by the Saints losing 38-3 in the most shocking Week 1 outcome. The Packers need a big bounce-back win on Monday Night Football to quiet the national media.
The Packers will take on the Detroit Lions, who almost pulled off a dramatic comeback against the San Francisco 49ers. They ultimately fell short and lost 41-33, but it was encouraging to see this young Lions team battle back. The NFC North went winless in Week 1, which changes on Monday Night Football.
Lions Packers Monday Night Football Odds: GB -11.5, Total 48.5 | Matchup Report
Why the Packers can cover the spread
Week 1 could not have gone worse for the Packers. A 38-3 butt-kicking to the Saints is not how Packers fans predicted the season would start. Aaron Rodgers was the 31st ranked quarterback in Week 1, according to PFF. It was only the third game of his career where he threw for multiple interceptions and did not throw for a touchdown.
Well, good thing the Lions are coming to town. According to Football Outsiders, the Lions had the 32nd ranked defense last year, while the Packers had the top-ranked offense. The Lions’ top cornerback Jeffrey Okudah is out for the season, leaving the defense even more depleted. The Packers have to score touchdowns and avoid field goals to cover the 12 point spread. Last year, the Packers had the best red zone offense scoring a touchdown at an 80% rate, while the Lions finished 31st in red zone defense.
Why the Lions an cover the spread
The Lions were down 31-10 at halftime, and it looked like the game was all but over. Dan Campbell must have fired his team up in the locker room as the Lions came out in the second half, firing on all cylinders. They outscored the 49ers 23-10 in the second half and almost pulled off the comeback.
The Lions have to get after Rodgers. No David Bakhtiari opens up a hole on the left side of the Packers’ offensive line. Rodgers looked flustered last week, and the Lions need to follow in the Saints’ footsteps to have any shot at winning this game.
Lions Packers Betting Pick – Monday Night
The Packers are off a huge loss against the Lions at home on Monday Night Football. The Packers are 7-1 SU on MNF, 27-3 SU at home the past 30 seasons against Detroit and 11-1 SU within the NFC North. Packers win this one by two touchdowns.
Monday Night Football Props – Anytime TD Bets
Robert Tonyan +150
Don’t hold any of the Packers’ performances against them when making prop bets for this game. Tonyan had touchdowns in six of his last seven regular-season games last year.
A.J Dillon +210
I am expecting the Packers to get out to a huge lead by the third quarter. Dillon will get his touches late in the game, and LaFleur loves to give him red zone carries.
T.J Hockenson +220
The Packers allowed two touchdowns to Saints’ tight end Juwan Johnson last week. He is the Lions’ best pass-catcher on the roster, and you get him at +220 odds.
Lions Packers Betting Trends for Monday Night
Packers are 1-6 ATS as double-digit favorites since 2015 and played 8 straight UNDERs when DD chalk. Detroit has played 6 straight UNERS as double-digit dogs.
Packers 11-1 SU in their last 12 divisional games while the Lions are 1-11 SU in the NFC North.
Packers 27-3 SU in their last 30 games when playing at home against Detroit.
Lions 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in September.
Lions 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played on a Monday.
OVER is 7-2 Detroit’s last 9 games as the underdog
OVER is 22-8 Green Bay’s last 30 games played in September
Packers 7-1 SU in their last 8 games played on a Monday.