Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) sits on the ground after an injury during the first half of an NFL football game at FirstEnergy Stadium, Sunday, Dec. 12, 2021, in Cleveland, Ohio. [Jeff Lange/Beacon Journal]Browns 3

Packers Ravens Pick, Rodgers Rules

The point spread may change if Lamar Jackson plays, but this is Green Bay’s victory whether the star QB plays or not.

The Baltimore Ravens pivot is day-to-day with an ankle injury he suffered against the Cleveland Browns). But his recent struggles and Green Bay’s assault on the point spread (7-1 ATS in their last eight games as the favorite and 11-1 ATS in their previous 12 games) leads this prediction in only one direction.

The Ravens have yet to meet a top passing offense since Marlon Humphrey was put on IR for the season. The Packers’ offense is going to have a huge day. Take the Packers as 5.5-point road chalk at FanDuel, but watch the line move if Jackson is cleared

Packers Ravens Betting Pick, Odds: BAL +5.5, Total 43.5 | Matchup Report 

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Why the Packers will cover the spread

Even if Lamar does play, his ankle will hold him back from using his biggest strength which is his athleticism. And if he doesn’t play, the thought of facing backup Tyler Huntley won’t be keeping the Packers defenders up at night. It’s essential to note Jackson did not practice on Thursday.

This season, the Ravens defense has been disappointing, very unlike a Don Martindale-coached system. The Ravens defense ranks 23rd in defensive DVOA and will go up against one of the best offenses in the NFL. The Packers offense ranks second in EPA per play and has scored 30+ points in three straight games. 

Why the Ravens will cover the spread

Green Bay’s biggest weakness is their run defense, and it looks like they will be without their top interior defensive lineman Kenny Clarke. The Packers rank 24th in rush defense DVOA, so watch out for the Ravens to try and exploit the middle of their defense. 

The Ravens are still 8-5 and leading the AFC North. They have one of the best coaches in the NFL in John Harbaugh, so covering 4.5 isn’t crazy. The Ravens are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games when playing as the underdog and they have won 13 in a row SU vs NFC teams, so there is some trend support for backing Baltimore.

And its worth noting that Baltimore has been a home underdog just six times since 2015 and they won outright five times. A trend for the moneyline upset theorists among us.

Packers Ravens Betting Pick

The Ravens are just too banged up right now, and this Packers offense is rolling.

Packers -5.5

Ravens Packers Betting Trends

Ravens are 13-0 SU in their last 13 games against an opponent in the NFC.

Ravens are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in December, 17-6 ATS in their last 23

Packers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games, 16-5 ATS past 21

Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as the favorite

Ravens are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games when playing as the underdog

Ravens 5-1 SU and ATS since 2015 as home underdogs

Bet GB BAL

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