Packers Bills Pick, Rodgers DD Dog

It takes a lot for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers to be double-digit underdogs, but this Sunday Nighter’s big number is a testament to how poorly Green Bay is playing as well as how strong the host Buffalo Bills look.

Noteworthy here that Green Bay has never closed as a double-digit dog when Rodgers starts. And that the Packers have never won in Buffalo.

With Buffalo favored by 11 points, let’s look at both sides.

Packers Bills Pick: Odds BUF -11, Total 47.5 at FanDuel | Matchup Stats

WHY THE PACKERS WILL COVER

Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers, and he and his team really need this. It’s hard to imagine them not putting up a fight in prime time under those circumstances.

Trend Dummy fairly points out hey are 5-1 ATS in their past 6 trips as a dog, so they have packed some underdog bite when catching points.

WHY THE BILLS WILL COVER

They’re the best team in football, while the Packers rank 20th in DVOA. Green Bay has two double-digit losses to lesser teams than Buffalo this season and might not have much in it.

These teams have met 13 times and the home team has won 11 times. The Bills cover as double-digit home chalk (6-0-2 ATS) and 7-1 SU off a bye week.

PACKERS BILLS PICK

The Bills have three blowout victories under their belt already. This isn’t the spot to fade them, even if you never know for sure with Rodgers.

Green Bay Buffalo Anytime TD Prop Picks

AJ Dillon Anytime TD +320

Dillon’s usage has gone down, but these odds are an overreaction. He should still see red zone carries.

Josh Allen Anytime TD +130

Allen has been a monster with his legs this season. Look for Allen to be the go-to runner in the red zone.

Bills Packers Betting Trends

Packers have been double-digit road dogs just 5 times since 1993, most recently Nov. 26, 2017 when Rodgers was hurt – lost all 5. Rodgers has never been a double-digit dog.

Packers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games, 1-5 ATS on the road

Past 5 meetings all played UNDER the total

Teams have met 13 times in NFL history, home team won 11

Packers have never won in Buffalo

Bills are 7-1 SU after a bye week

Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as underdog

Bills are 6-0-2 ATS past 8 times as double-digit home chalk