Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers have lost five of their last six games in the Pacific time zone, with two of those losses coming at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers. That has to pain Rodgers, who grew up in the Golden State.
Now, despite the fact he and his team bounced back from a Week 1 nightmare with a forceful victory over the Detroit Lions Monday night, Rodgers and Co. are underdogs in San Francisco Sunday evening.
It’s not an easy one to get a bead on because the Packers have played Jekyll and Hyde while the 49ers have looked uninspired in their first two outings and are once again nursing multiple significant injuries.
With the 49ers laying three points, let’s size up the third Sunday nighter of 2021 from a betting perspective.
WHY THE PACKERS WILL COVER
The 2020 MVP looked like his usual self alongside star weapons Aaron Jones and Davante Adams Monday night, and it’s pretty damn tough to slow Rodgers down once he heats up.
Throw in the potential psychological aspect associated with the doubts that came his way following that Week 1 loss to the New Orleans Saints and it would seem silly not to take three points in this spot.
The risk? Green Bay tends to lose as underdogs (5-14-1 SU past 20 games in this role).
WHY THE 49ERS WILL COVER
As we mentioned, Rodgers really struggles in California (and Florida, for that matter). And that sample is by no means small. He and the Pack are now traveling multiple time zones on short rest, which is not ideal when you’re a veteran team.
And it’s not as though Green Bay is extremely healthy. The pass rush has been nonexistent without Za’Darius Smith and Rodgers misses key 2020 offensive linemen David Bakhtiari and Corey Linsley.
PACKERS 49ERS BETTING PICK
The 49ers are missing multiple running backs as well as starters Jason Verrett and Raheem Mostert. They nearly blew a big lead in Week 1 against the lowly Detroit Lions and were not convincing in Week 2 against the Philadelphia Eagles. They feel like a faux 2-0, while the Packers look as though they’re putting it back together.
Green Bay is 27-7 in the Matt LaFleur era. I doubt they drop to 1-2 this season on Sunday night, but even if they do, it’ll likely be a very close game. I’ll take the Pack by a field goal.
49ers Packers Prop Picks
Check out Deeg’s Sunday Night Football Anytime TD Scorer prop picks article.
Green Bay San Francisco Betting Trends
Nine of the past 12 meetings played OVER the total
Packers 18-5 SU in their last 23 conference games
Packers have played 6 straight Week 3 OVERs
Packers are 5-14-1 SU in their last 20 games when playing as the underdog
Niners are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing as the favourite.