Tampa Bay Buccaneers outside linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul (90) sacks Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) during the first quarter of their NFC Championship game

Green Bay Tampa Bay Pick, Watch Injury List

For all the potential storylines about champion QBs Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers battling for a final time, that will take a back seat to the injury situation which dominates how bettors approach this Week 3 matchup.

Green Bay and Tampa Bay each have injuries galore, especially at receiver (and Mike Evans is also suspended for the Bucs), which could turn this into a grinding ground game. The Bucs were favored by a single point as of Friday with the total plunging downwards from 47.5 to 42.

Watch the injury report closer to kickoff because this line could jump suddenly.

Green Bay Tampa Bay Pick: Odds TB -1, Total 42 | Matchup Stats 

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Why Green Bay Can Cover

The Packers are 6-2 ATS in their previous 8 games when playing as the underdog, and their defense may enjoy mismatches if Tampa Bay’s injury report doesn’t improve by Sunday. Rodgers has something to prove against his QB foe and has been formidable as a road underdog in recent years (8-3 ATS).

Brady may not have anyone to throw to, other than Julio Jones fresh off the injured list. If they can slow the ground game, they may be able to tee off on Brady with blitzes.

Why Tampa Bay Can Cover

Tampa Bay enters this game 11-3 ATS in their previous 14 games at home. And their foes have been terrible against the run, giving up 306 rushing yards throughout the first 2 weeks of the season. Leonard Fournette (currently 5th in NFL rushing yards) better have a big day and Green Bay hasn’t shown an ability to stop the run.

Green Bay Tampa Bay Pick

I like Tampa Bay to win at home in this game. Julio Jones is questionable, but expected to play and would be a top option for Tom Brady. The Green Bay receiver room, aside from Romeo Doubs, missed practice on Thursday afternoon with illness and injuries, so there is very obvious cause for concern there from the Green Bay side of things.

Anytime TD Picks

Julio Jones (+200 on FanDuel): Jones is expected to play in Week 3 after missing Week 2 vs New Orleans. With Evans ruled out with a suspension, Jones is projected to be the WR1 on a Brady-led offense. Jones should be a popular parlay anytime TD pick this week.

Romeo Doubs (+270 on FanDuel): Doubs was the only wide receiver for Green Bay that didn’t miss practice on Thursday, so naturally I’m expecting an uptick in on-field usage. Doubs flashed the entire preseason, and has already seen 8 targets from Rodgers in the regular season. I like Doubs’ odds to find the endzone in Week 3.

Green Bay Tampa Bay Betting Trends

Bucs are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games played in Week 3.

Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing as the underdog.

Bucs are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games at home.

Bucs covered 5 straight vs NFC North teams

Packers 8-3 ATS as regular season road dog since 2018

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