Nov 10, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) attempts a pass during the second quarter against the Detroit Lions at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Texans Cowboys Picks, Houston Covers MNF

Not long ago, the Dallas Cowboys were riding a long home win streak where they dominated foes but they have been outscored 81-15 past two games as home dogs.

They catch 7 points here against the visiting Texans in the Week 11 Monday Nighter and that number might still not be enough to shake bettors off Houston.

Dallas ranks second-last in rushing defense and Houston RB Joe Mixon will be asked to exploit that weakness here.  Less Dak Prescott means more Cooper Rush which isn’t a great thing for your Dallas bet and Houston comes is primed for a bounce performance after consecutive losses where they should have won.

Texans Cowboys Picks: Odds DAL +7, Total 41.5 | Matchup Report

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Why the Texans Can Cover the Spread

Detroit is considered the NFC’s best team and Houston handled them through three quarters last week. Unfortunately, there are four quarters in football.

Dallas is a far inferior foe and has been a shit show at home with injuries and poor play. The Texans have won 11 of 13 games when they lay points so expect them to win here but seven points is a lot on the road.

However Dallas has lost 5 straight at home and failed to cover six straight at home. They are also lousy as underdogs and both trends looks likely to continue.

Why the Cowboys Can Cover the Spread

Dallas began the year (like every year) with Super Bowl aspirations, but they were quickly exposed as sloppy on defense and sporadic on offense. Then Prescott went down.

Rush has played well in the past in starter minutes and if his defense can keep things close, he can rely on the ground game with Zeke Elliott and Rico Dowdle. Then he doesn’t need to do too much himself to keep this close which is all they need to do to cover.

Houston is just 4-10 ATS in 14 recent MNF games while the Cowboys have covered 8 of 11 MNF games overall. And trends seekers may like the weird fact that Dallas is 15-2 SU the past 17 seasons in Week 11.

Texans Cowboys Picks

A year ago, imagining Dallas as a TD home dog would have been bizarro world. But they have earned this oddsmaker disrespect and look primed for another beating at home against a team hungry for a redemption game. It’s a big road number bit we see Houston winning by double digits on MNF.

Texans Cowboys Betting Trends

Cowboys are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games played in Week 11.

Cowboys are 2-11 SU and ATS in their last 13 games as the underdog.

Texans are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games as favorites.

Texans are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games vs NFC East.

Texans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 MNF games

Cowboys lost 5 straight at home and failed to cover 6 straight

Cowboys are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 MNF games but are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 MNF home games

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