The Ravens shredded the Broncos’ defense through the air last week, with Lamar Jackson throwing for 300+ yards passing for the first time since a January 2020 playoff game. The Broncos’ pass defense had been among the best in the league before playing Baltimore.
They host an Indianapolis Colts team that has dominated them against the spread over the years (10-2 ATS), but comes off its first win of the season while catching seven points here in the Week 5 Monday Nighter.
Indy beat Miami 27-17, but it was never that close. The Dolphins scored some garbage time points to inflate the score. The Colts’ defense was spectacular all game. They got to Jacoby Brissett three times and forced two turnovers.
Why the Colts can cover the spread
Last week was a huge win for this Colts team. They started off 0-3 but battled hard in each game. It was vital for them to get a win and move on from their first three games. The AFC South is still wide open. Even at 1-3, the Colts are still in striking distance of the Tennessee Titans.
It will be necessary for Indianapolis to establish a ground game early. The Broncos last week ran for 6.2 yards per carry. The Colts have to take the pressure off Carson Wentz in his first prime time game of the year.
For trends watchers, the Colts are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games played in October and for some reason excel in Week 5 (16-3 SU in their last 19.)
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Why the Ravens can cover the spread
Interesting stat: The Ravens have scored at least 14 points in 37 consecutive games, 36 of those coming since Greg Roman took over as the play-caller.
Miami has arguably the worst pass rush in the NFL, and they were still able to sack Wentz twice. The Colts are 25th in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric. Look for Baltimore to send a ton of blitzes Wentz’s way.
The Ravens are also 18-7 ATS in their last 25 conference games and have won 7 straight in October.
Colts Ravens Betting Pick
I love the Ravens this year, but seven points is too much. The Colts keep this one close.
Ravens Colts Anytime TD Props
Sammy Watkins +250
Rashod Bateman will not play, so Watkins slots in as the second wide receiver on the depth chart. The Colts have allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers this year.
Nyheim Hines +300
The Colts need to get Hines going. The Ravens have allowed five touchdowns to opposing running backs this season
Baltimore D/ST +430
Taking a swing on my first D/ST bet of the year. This is the Colts’ first primetime game of the year. They will make some early mistakes.
Baltimore Indianapolis Betting Trends
Ravens are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against Indianapolis.
UNDER is 12-1 past meetings of Ravens and Colts
Indianapolis are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games as underdog.
Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against Baltimore, 6-1 ATS past 7 at Baltimore
Colts are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games played in October.
Colts are 16-3 SU in their last 19 games played in Week 5.
Colts are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games played on a Monday.
Ravens are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 conference games
Ravens have won 7 straight October games