The Indianapolis Colts have struggled as underdogs and struggle at Buffalo. Can they at least cover the spread as they bring a 2-11 SU streak as an underdog and a 5-21 SU in their last 26 games visiting the Bills.
The Colts currently hold the 28th ranked red zone offense and will go against the best red zone defense in the NFL. Their success has come when they can run the ball, which will not happen in this game, considering the Bills allow the third-fewest yards per carry in the league.
The Bills will cover the spread, which is set at 7 points at FanDuel.
Colts Bills Prediction: Odds Buffalo -7.5, Total 49.5 | Matchup Report
Why the Indianapolis Colts will cover the spread
The Colts are one of the hottest teams in the AFC; they are winners of three of their last four games and averaging 32 points per game during that stretch. They are starting to find their groove on offense.
Carson Wentz has surprisingly been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at avoiding turnovers. This season, he only has three interceptions, which is tied for the second-fewest out of any starting quarterback in the league. The Bills’ defense thrives on turnovers, so they can keep this game close if they can hold onto the ball.
Why the Buffalo Bills will cover the spread
The Bills looked like their 2020 self last week against the New York Jets. They won 45-17, and most importantly, Josh Allen played his best game of the season, finishing with 366 yards on only 21 completions and two touchdowns.
The Colts’ strength on defense is their ability to stop the run, and that won’t matter this game, as the Bills run game is non-existent. They are a pass-first team, and the Colts own the 23rd ranked DVOA pass defense. Stefon Diggs has 14 catches for 247 yards and a touchdown in just his last two games. He will continue his hot streak in this game and cause the Colts defense all sorts of problems.
Colts Bills Prediction
This is a tough spot for the Colts. They don’t match up very well against this pass-happy Bills offense. I like the Bills -7 at FanDuel
Buffalo Indianapolis Props from FanDuel
Carson Wentz OVER 219.5 Passing Yards
The Colts are going to have trouble running the ball in this game.
Josh Allen OVER 2.5 Passing TDs +162
The Colts have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns this season
T.Y Hilton UNDER 31.5 Receiving Yards
He has failed to eclipse 16 yards in back-to-back games.
Bills Colts Betting Trends
Colts are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games when playing as the underdog.
Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
Colts are 5-21 SU in their last 26 games at Buffalo
Colts are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games played in Week 11.
Bills are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games
Bills are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games played in November.