Nov 13, 2022; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA;  Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons (11) during the game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Colts Cowboys Pick, Lamb 2 TDs?

The gap right now between the Indianapolis Colts and Dallas Cowboys is huge. Indy ranks third-last in the NFL in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders, while Dallas ranks fourth in that critical metric.

Unsurprisingly, we’re looking at a double-digit spread with the Cowboys at home Sunday night. With America’s Team favored by 10.5 points, let’s look at both sides as the calendar flips to December when Dallas currently rides a 7-0 ATS streak.

Colts Cowboys Pick: Odds DAL -10.5, Total 44 | Matchup Stats

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WHY THE COLTS WILL COVER

Despite the fact it’s been a miserable year, Indy has the talent to battle. The Colts have just one double-digit loss since Week 2. Dallas has also been prone to the odd slip-up and the backdoor cover is on the table.

And for whatever reason, the Colts have performed very well against NFC teams with a 20-8-1 ATS run over its last 30 non-conference games.

WHY THE COWBOYS WILL COVER

Dallas is hitting on all cylinders and operating on extra rest following a Thanksgiving game. Meanwhile, the Colts are also on short rest following a deflating home loss to the lowly Steelers.

Dallas boasts a Top 5 defense and an explosive offense and both can feast on the Colts.

COLTS COWBOYS PICK

The number is high, but not high enough considering the gap. I’m not sure the Colts have much left. Dallas in a rout.

Cowboys Colts Anytime TD Props

CeeDee Lamb 2 TDs – +490 – If this game is a rout, it probably begins with big plays and the biggest big-play guy is Lamb.

Jelani Woods +490 – If this game is a rout, Indy will get some garbage time action. And Woods was terrific a week ago catching more passes in one game than he had all season. Dallas is coming for Matt Ryan, who will need to get the ball out fast to a young TE.

Cowboys Colts Betting Trends

UNDER is 14-3 in Indianapolis’ last 17 games

UNDER is 8-1 Indianapolis’ last 9 games on the road.

Cowboys are 7-0 ATS last 7 December games

Colts are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 non-conference games

Upcoming Games

Jan 29th, 3:00 PM

San Francisco +1.5 -110

Philadelphia -1.5 -110

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Jan 29th, 6:30 PM

Cincinnati +2.5 -120

Kansas City -2.5 -120

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