Aug 27, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russel Wilson (3) in the first quarter of their game against the Minnesota Vikings at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Colts Broncos Pick, UNDER on TNF?

Which disappointing preseason horse contender would you bet on to rebound from bad losses in the Week 5 Thursday Nighter – the Denver Broncos or the Indianapolis Colts?

Yeah…. The Broncos opened as 2.5 point favorites and were quickly bet to -3.5 as of Monday morning (watch line moves during the week) but have hardly inspired bettor confidence, Now they proceed without RB Javonte Williams, possibly freeing Russell Wilson to ‘cook.’

The Colts meanwhile should be 0-4 and rank last in scoring, not quite as bad as 29th-ranked Denver. And they proceed minus Jonathan Taylor, out with an ankle sprain, which makes Nyheim Hines an interesting TD prop bet at +165 at Draft Kings.

UNDER bet anyone? The line opened at 43 and crept up a half point by Monday, but was 42 Thursday. All kinds of trends point UNDER, in addition to the recent form of two anemic offenses. BetRivers reported that nearly 70% of the totals money bet on the game was on the UNDER.

Colts Broncos Pick: Odds Denver -3.5, Total 43.5 at FanDuel | Matchup Stats

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Why the Colts can cover the spread

If you look at historical trends, there is a lot to like about Indy’s chances here. They boast the following positive streaks: 9-3 ATS vs Denver, 10-2 SU in Thursday road games, 10-3 ATS in Week5 and 6-1 ATS as an underdog.

But the Colts have played so poorly, including last week’s home loss to Tennessee that is tough to imagine they can turn it around on a short week. Unless, of course, you are playing a Denver team that got smacked by winless Las Vegas.

Denver has also struggled mightily to cover spreads in conference games (2-10 ATS past 12 times).

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Let Russ cook? Expect him to do more, with Williams done for the season and Melvin Gordon unproven recently as a fulltime RB. Denver has been a great bet on short weeks over the past 15 seasons, going 11-4 ATS on Thursdays. And their defense currently ranks 4th in total yards allowed at 284.5.

More importantly, Russell Wilson had his best game as a Broncos in the Week 4 loss, completing 17 of 25 passes for 237 yards and two TD passes, while running for a third score. If the run defense rebounds from a bad game to slow down Jonathan Taylor, they can win here.

Colts Broncos Pick

These teams average 31 PPG in total, ranking last and fourth-last in the league. Both the Chiefs and Lions average more than that.  That average is nearly two TDs lower than the total, meaning it may creep lower during the week when the betting public catch on.

Denver has been a reliable UNDER bet overall and when they are favored. We will hold our horses with a side pick and play UNDER. The Colts have played nine straight UNDERs. Beware – both are middle of the pack in total offensive yards, so maybe the scoring numbers are misleading or due for a correction.

Broncos Colts Anytime TD Scorer Prop Picks

Nyheim Hines +165 at Draft Kings – We expect this line to drop closet to kickoff, but with Taylor out, the ground game and goal-lie opportunities (if there are any) should fall to Hines. He has been a Colt for several seasons and should be able to carry this load, he’s great value at +165.

*Editor Note: Hines gets hurt on second play and out of game….

Latavious Murray +400 at Draft Kings – Yes, Murray just played with the Saints in Week 4, but is now a Bronco. With fumble-happy Melvin Gordon dropping the ball literally and figuratively, there is nothin to stop Murray from getting opportunities in the red zone.

Indianapolis Denver Betting Trends

Broncos are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against an opponent in the AFC.

Colts are 10-2 SU in their last 12 Thursday road games

Colts have played UNDER in 9 straight games

UNDER is 15-6 past 21 Denver games

UNDER is 17-5 Denver’s last 22 games as the favorite.

Colts are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against Denver.

Colts are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in week 5.

Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as the underdog.

Broncos are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 Thursday games

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