![Oct 8, 2023; London United Kingdom, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17)] throws the ball under pressure from Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackle Folorunso Fatukasi (94) during the first half of an NFL International Series game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports](https://www.nationalfootballpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/21603010.jpg)
Buffalo and Jacksonville played a Bills ’home’ game in London last year, but this will be a true Buffalo home game.
That puts the 21-5 SU home streak for Buffalo firmly in play here. But also in play is the Bills record of failure on MNF, losers of 12 of their past 17 MNF games. And it puts Trevor Lawrence’s 0-7 record in his past seven starts in danger of continuing too.
The Jags are 10-3 ATS in their past 13 road games which makes the +5.5 number intriguing. Also of note, the OVER is 5-1 in six career meetings here.
Jaguars Bills Picks: Odds BUF -5.5, Total 45.5 | Matchup Report
Why the Jaguars can cover the spread
The horrible Jaguars ATS streak is due to end, and Lawrence is due for a bounce effort if his OL can play better. He has completed just half of his passes so far in 2024.
Longtime Bills WR Gabe Davis will hope to have an impact in his return here. Jaxville is aware the Bills often shit the bed on MNF, so they will be primed to stay close here and spring the upset (or back-door cover).
Why the Bills can cover the spread
The Buffalo OL has been awesome and Josh Allen has benefitted with a pair of monster games. The Jacksonville defense could offer up a third.
The Jaguars have lost seven of eight and six straight conference games and have also been a MNF disaster at 3-9 ATS in 12 tries.
Jaguars Bills Pick
This game might get out of hand early, and the OVER could happen early as well. We see the Bills scoring at will and expect a better performance from Lawrence and the Jaguars offense.
Jaguars Bills Betting Trends
Bills are 21-5 SU in their last 26 games at home.
Jaguars are 3-11 SU in their last 14 games played in September.
Jaguars are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games on the road.
Jaguars have lost 7 of past 8 games
OVER is 5-1 in 6 career meetings here
Jaguars have lost six straight conference games, 1-5 ATS ‘
Jaguars are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played on a Monday.
Bills are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played in Week 3.
Bills are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games played on a Monday.
