Jaguars Chiefs Pick, Divisional Playoff Prediction

Trevor Lawrence threw 4 picks against the Chargers and got away with it. He probably can’t afford to throw even one in the AFC Divisional Playoff as the Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Kansas City Chiefs as 8.5-point underdogs.

The Chiefs are the AFC top seed and are 6-1 ATS in their past 7 vs the Jags, but they have been a betting disaster this year within the AFC (2-11 ATS).

The Jags meanwhile are playing with house money after barely making the playoffs then pulling an epic rally last week. Beware Jags Head Coach Doug Pederson trickery here.

Jaguars Chiefs Pick: Odds KC -8.5, Total 52 | Matchup Stats

Why Jacksonville can cover the spread

The Jags have won six in a row and covered four straight games as playoff underdogs. And KC brings that wallet-draining streak of 2-11 ATS in conference games.

The Jaguars D line is tough and ranks in the Top 5 of several key pressure metrics. So they can get after Patrick Mahomes. The question is whether that’s good or bad to flush Mahomes from the pocket.

And if Kansas City’s red-defense continues to falter (they were second worst this season in allowing TDs), the Jaguars have the offense to stay close here. Don’t discount Coach Doug Pederson’s aggressive nature here, as he knows he probably cannot win by settling for field goals or conventional play calling.

Why Kansas City can cover the spread

The presumptive MVP almost always wins at home and almost always wins as favorite. But covering spread has been tougher. The Chiefs offense if varied and explosive and KC should be able to leg out a lead.

The risk, when the spread is 8.5 points, is garbage time scoring. But where the Chargers got ahead and seemed to lose its way, KC knows how to keep a rout going on their way to a fifth straight AFC title game.

Jaguars Chiefs Pick

Just making the playoffs felt like Jacksonville’s Super Bowl. Then rallying from 27-0 surely felt like their Super Bowl. We doubt they have much left in the emotional tank here after KC races to a lead. We play the Chiefs big.

Chiefs Jaguars Anytime TD Props

Kadarius Toney +210

Toney’s snaps are starting to rise, playing in over 30% of the snaps in three straight games. With Mecole Hardman banged up, I expect him to be closer to 50%.

Evan Engram +220

Engram has four touchdowns in his last six games. The Chiefs have given up the fifth most touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season.

Jacksonville Kansas City Betting Trends

Chiefs 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS past 8 home playoff games as favorites

Jaguars have covered 4 straight as playoff dogs, winning SU twice

Jaguars are 4-22 SU in their last 26 games on the road

Jaguars have won 6 straight 5-1 ATS

Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Jacksonville.

Chiefs are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 conference games

UNDER is 11-3 Kansas City’s last 14 games played on a Saturday.

UNDER is 8-1 past 9 times Jags were dogs of 8 or more points

However, the OVER is 8-3 Jacksonville’s last 11 games overall when playing as the underdog.