Jaguars Jets Pick, OVER 38

When it comes to betting on the New York Jets as small home favorites, learn from history or you are doomed to repeat it

Since 2011, the Jets have been favored by 3 or less points in regular season home games 8 times. They have lost every time. So…..

These Jets are better than your father’s Jets, but so are the Jacksonville Jaguars, fresh off a groovy OT win over Dallas and still sniffing the playoffs. On a short week, which erratic team makes the best moves? Side with the home team? The Cold-weather team?

Jaguars Jets Pick: Odds NYJ -1, Total 38 | Matchup Stats

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

If you can beat the Cowboys, you can beat the Jets. And with Trevor Lawrence among the league’s best QBs the past two months, a Jaguars SU win here is in play with their surging young offensive talent.

Sure there are some ugly trends (2-22 SU past 24 road games) but the playoffs are calling and a short week may favor HC Doug Pederson, who got to face the Jets every preseason when he was in Philly.

Why the Jets can cover the spread

They are home, they can handle the cold better and they are also in the thick of the playoff picture. Winning here keeps the Jags behind them in the Wild Card hunt. Given comparable non-contending teams, we usually side with the home team, especially with a small number to cover.

The Jets have covered six games in a row off an ATS loss and they lost a depressing 20-17 result to Detroit on the weekend.

Jaguars Jets Pick

This is a low total, which should be in jeopardy as we see Jacksonville forcing the action offensively which forces the Jets to open up. We see this game into the 40s for an easy OVER 38.

Jaguars Jets Anytime Prop Picks

Garrett Wilson +195

Wilson has emerged as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in his rookie season. The Jaguars have allowed the second most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season at FanDuel

Trevor Lawrence +500

Lawrence has four rushing touchdowns on the season, and the Jets have allowed the third most rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks at FanDuel

Jets Jaguars Betting Trends

Since 2011, Jets have been home favorite of 1-3 points 8 times and lost every game.

Jets are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games played on a Thursday.

Jaguars are 2-22 SU in their last 24 games on the road.

Last 5 meetings have played OVER the total

Jaguars are 6-18 SU in their last 24 games played in Week 16.