Dec 26, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (25) runs for a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Chiefs Bengals Pick, KC covers 5 points

Historically this matchup plays UNDER the total (9 of past 11) and an improved Kansas City defense might mean Cincinnati has trouble moving the ball. At least more trouble than last week when they scorched Baltimore for 8 million yards through the air.

So the UNDER 51 is plausible, but this matchup looks like big brother – armed with plenty of experience in fistfights – thumping the cool little brother who might be a little too big for his britches just yet.

Can Cincy avoid a letdown here and can the Chiefs continue their road winning ways and overall ATS dominance?

Chiefs Bengals Betting Pick, Odds: CIN +5, Total 51 @ Draft Kings | Matchup Report

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Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

After 10 weeks of struggle, the Chiefs look like themselves and have six straight covers to prove it. Should the KC game plan focus on the ground attack and short aerial gains, this could be a KC cover and UNDER. If they choose to go up top, it could be Chiefs cover and OVER.

The ground game might not be available if Clyde Edwards-Helaire remains inactive. Either way, we are saying this is a Kansas City cover, extending their road streak to 19-4 SU and ATS win streak to seven.

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

After throwing for 525 yards with a sore finger, Joe Burrow is capable of generating enough offense to cover 5 point. But this is Kansas City, not the Baltimore secondary with 6th-string practice squad dudes. The Bengals are healthy and up for the challenge of facing big brother here.

Interestingly, the Bengals have won 5 straight at home to the Chiefs, but they are fighting a historical trend that sees them losers of 12 of 14 games in the month of January. Not cold enough in Cincinnati? Or maybe they never get home games in January.

Chiefs Bengals Betting Pick

Kansas City is rolling, but their poor start mean they need to keep winning. That’s bad news for Cincy backers who will probably lose money this week.

Chiefs -5

Bengals Chiefs Betting Trends

Nine of past 11 meetings played UNDER the total

Bengals are 2-12 SU, 2-11-1 ATS past 14 games in January

Chiefs 18-4 SU past 22 road games

Chiefs have lost 5 straight at Cincy

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