Nov 20, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Ronald Jones (2) dives to make a tackle on Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Joshua Palmer (5) during the second quarter at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Chiefs Chargers Betting Picks, KC, UNDER?

Since 2000, the Chargers have won just a single game as a home underdog 7 points or more, which is the situation Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs visit.

Perhaps that lone victory will repeat itself as it did in 2005 when Trent Green threw 4 INTs and Doug Flutie replaced Philip Rivers to lead Chargers to win. Or maybe the Chargers can cover, like they have done five times in six tries as a home dog of a TD.

Either way, the trends favor a KC win here as they have won 9 in a row visiting the Chargers, while the Bolts are just 1-14 SU in their past 15 games as underdogs.

Kansas City @ LA Chargers +8.5, Total 39.5 | Matchup Stats

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City is 3-0 and hasn’t played well yet, which proves that winner teams win and loser teams lose. They ran the ball even without Isiah Pacheco and still plan to get big contributions from Travis Kelce and others.

They have won 9 straight here and 17 of 20 against the Chargers. But covering a TD on the road is a big task regardless the scenario in a divisional game. Its more interesting with Herbert limping, half the OL sidelined and Joey Bosa and Safety Derwin James also out.

The Chiefs are 18-4 SU on the road and dominate the division. Laying the wood is risky but the UNDER has more appeal….

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

Maybe the Chiefs are winning while not being a very good team? That’s what the Chargers can hope for while Justin Herbert returns to form. This is a cool spot to spring the upset with Jim Harbaugh at the controls but it will require a master class in coaching.

The UNDER is a pervasive trend for the Chargers as well (13-1 past 14 Sunday games) and 15-3 past 18 overall. But a weird trend sees the Chargers at 10-4 ATS the past 14 seasons in Week 4 – why, we cannot tell you.

Chiefs Chargers Betting Picks

It might be a square play to roll with the 3-0 team laying 7 points, but its hard to imagine the Chargers having enough to jolt the Chiefs here. Our best bet however is the UNDER, despite a Week 4 OVER trend, just about everything in the history and the situation points UNDER.

Chiefs Chargers Betting Trends

Chargers are 1-14 SU in their last 15 games as the underdog.

UNDER is 13-1 LA Chargers’ last 14 games played on a Sunday.

UNDER is 15-3 past 18 Chargers games

Chiefs are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games, 8-1 ATS during 9-game win streak

Chiefs are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games against LA Chargers.

Chiefs are 18-4 SU in their last 22 games on the road.

Chiefs are 15-2 SU in their last 17 divisional games.

Chargers are 2-8 SU and ATS past 10 seasons before a bye

Chargers are 3-17 SU past 20 as home dog

Chargers have lost 9 straight at home to KC

Chargers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played in week 4 and OVER is 16-5 past 21 seasons

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