Jan 3, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Demarcus Robinson (11) runs the ball against Los Angeles Chargers cornerback Tevaughn Campbell (37) during the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Chiefs Chargers TNF Picks

The Kansas City Chiefs have won 12 straight games in December and look to continue their current hot streak in Week 15. The Chiefs have won six in a row, and visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday Night Football as small road favorites. 

Even though the Chiefs are 34-5 SU in their last 39 divisional games, the ATS mark is underwhelming at 14-18 ATS in their last 32 games. Meanwhile the Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six divisional games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing as the underdog.

The Chiefs may win this game, but the Chargers will cover the current 3-point spread at FanDuel.

Chiefs Chargers Prediction: Odds Chargers +3, Total 52 | Matchup Report 

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Why the Chiefs will cover the spread

The Chiefs’ defense has been the story of the last month. After being on pace to give up the most rushing yards in NFL history through the first month, they rank third in DVOA since Week 6, only behind the Cowboys and Patriots. 

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense seems to be getting back on track. They are 3rd in EPA per play since Week 12, and more importantly, the run game has caught fire. They are 5th in EPA per rush since Week 10 and rushed for 132 yards last week against the Raiders. 

Why the Chargers will cover the spread

Justin Herbert’s throw to Jaylen Guyton last week was insane. We have all watched it multiple times and still don’t know how he did it. Herbert is second in EPA per play out of all quarterbacks since Week 9 and has the Chargers offense sitting at 3rd in offensive DVOA. 

The Chargers’ defense had the formula to slow down the Chiefs offense back in Week 3, holding the Chiefs to 24 points and forcing two interceptions from Mahomes. If I had to pick one coach in the NFL to shut him down for one game, it would be Brandon Staley. 

Chiefs Chargers Prediction

This should be closer to a pick ’em spread. This has all the makings of a one or two-point Chiefs victory. 

Chargers +3 

KC LA Props – Anytime TD Picks

Justin Herbert +440 (FanDuel)

The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards and second-most rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.

Donald Parham Jr. +450 (DraftKings)

He plays a similar amount of snaps as Jared Cook and has double the odds.

Travis Kelce 2+ +700 (FanDuel)

The Chargers have allowed the second-most touchdowns to opposing tight ends.

Chargers Chiefs Betting Trends

Chargers are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games against Kansas City.

Chargers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games played on a Thursday.

Chiefs are 34-5 SU in their last 39 games against an opponent in the AFC West division.

Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at LA Chargers.

Chiefs won 12 straight games in December

Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games

Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing as the underdog.

Chargers are just 2-11 SU past 13 games as regular-season home dog since 2014

Bet KC LAC

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