In the span of more than a year, the Kansas City Chiefs have covered just four spreads in 20 regular-season and playoff games. In their last three outings, the Chiefs have averaged just 12.0 points per outing.
And the Kansas City defense ranks in the bottom five in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders. In short, the Chiefs are a damn hard team to back right now — even with the legendary Andy Reid as their head coach and the highest-rated passer in league history under center.
That might explain why the defending AFC champions are laying just less than a field goal as a 2.5-point favorite Sunday night against the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders. An argument could be made that creates a lot of value for a high-caliber team potentially destined to bounce back, but the Raiders could also feel disrespected considering their superior record and favorable recent history against the Chiefs.
Let’s look at both sides.
WHY THE CHIEFS WILL COVER
They’re due, and it’s hard to keep Reid and Patrick Mahomes down for long. And while they’ve struggled of late, the defense has turned it around with just 24 points allowed the last two weeks.
Plus, the Raiders are quite a mess. In the last few weeks, they’ve lost head coach Jon Gruden, starting receiver Henry Ruggs III and talented defensive back Damon Arnette as a result of off-field issues. They turned the ball over three times in a loss to the inferior New York Giants last week and could be hitting a wall.
WHY THE RAIDERS WILL COVER
The Chiefs have a multitude of arguably severe and potential terminal offensive issues, and it’s hard to imagine them fixing all of that on the fly. Critically, the Raiders also outscored the Chiefs in their two 2020 head-to-head matchups, with an impressive prime-time victory at Arrowhead.
Now, they’ll have a full house backing them against a K.C. team in much worse shape than it was in 2020.
CHIEFS RAIDERS Prediction
Sometimes, you have to put the trends and numbers aside and go with your gut. I’m losing trust in the Chiefs, but I’ve never trusted the Raiders and this looks like a prime opportunity for Reid and Mahomes to get it back on track. With just 2.5 points on the line, I’m reluctantly siding with Kansas City.
Raiders Chiefs Betting Trends
Raiders are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games against Kansas City.
OVER is 10-2 Las Vegas’ last 12 games at home.
Chiefs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 divisional games.
Chiefs are 31-5 SU in their last 36 divisional games
Chiefs are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games
Raiders are 6-2 ATS past 8 as divisional home dog
Sunday Night Football Prop Bets
Courtesy of Brenden Deeg, see his Anytime TD picks package for Week 10
Kenyan Drake +210 (DraftKings)
Drake has three touchdowns in his last three games.
Patrick Mahomes +380 (DraftKings)
These odds are too good to pass up on.
DeSean Jackson +380 (FanDuel)
I am taking a swing on the deep threat. The Raiders lead the league in 20+ yard completions.