Jul 24, 2023; St. Joseph, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) answers questions from reporters during training camp at Missouri Western State University. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Chiefs Jets Pick, KC Covers Easy

In one of the most highly-anticipated matchups of the 2023 NFL season, it’s Patrick Mahomes vs. Aaron Rodgers Sunday night in New York!

Wait, what? Ahhh damn, Mahomes vs. Zach Wilson will have to do, assuming Wilson lasts the whole game without getting benched. He’s been abysmal so far, which is part of the reason the Jets are getting 9.5 points from Kansas City at home.

The Chiefs look good, Taylor Swift looks better but it’s not enough of a distraction to earn the Jets a victory here.

Chiefs Jets Pick: Odds NYJ +8.5, Total 41.5 | Matchup Report

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Why the Chiefs will cover

They’re getting back on track after a slow start following myriad offseason changes on offense, and it’s hard to see the Jets getting in their way following consecutive 10-point offensive performances with Wilson starting in place of the injured Rodgers.

The defending champs won 8 of their last 9 road games and seven straight overall.

Why the Jets will cover

Gang Green still has a stellar defense that has surrendered just 31 total points in two home games thus far. That unit is once again home here, with the backdoor cover always something to consider in situations like those.

While the Chiefs historically cover against the Jets (7-2 ATS), they have lost five of the past six trips here. And KC seldom covers conference games (4-12 ATS past 16 vs AFC teams).

Chiefs Jets Pick

This line hasn’t caught up to current trends. The Chiefs should run away with this game before halftime.

Jets Chiefs Betting Trends

UNDER is 10-2 NY Jets’ last 12 conference games

UNDER is 15-6 NY Jets’ last 21 games.

UNDER is 8-3 NY Jets’ last 11 games as the underdog.

Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against NY Jets but just 1-5 SU past 6 visits here

Chiefs are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games on the road.

Chiefs won 7 straight conference games SU, but 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games

Jets played OVER in 6 straight Week 4 games

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