Feb 2, 2020; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; San Francisco 49ers receiver Kendrick Bourne (84) runs after a reception against Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Charvarius Ward (35) in Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Chiefs 49ers Pick, UNDER best bet?

It’s a Super Bowl 54 rematch with neither the Kansas City Chiefs nor the San Francisco 49ers legit Super Bowl contenders in 2022, but the Chiefs still laying a field goal on the road.

Editor Note: The line has moved to -1.5 for KC after the trade for Christian McCaffrey who is expected to play and is +125 to score a TD at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Patrick Mahomes has been terrific, despite teams playing tough man-to-man defense against him. The 49ers secondary has injury woes and they typically play straight zone. Can Mahomes pick that apart?

Both teams come off losses, both struggle curiously in Week 7 with terrible ATS marks, the 49ers have won and covered six straight home while the Chiefs have lost here five times in a row over the years.

Chiefs 49ers Pick: Odds SF +3, Total 48.5 | Matchup Stats

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Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

KC hasn’t lost consecutive games since Weeks 2-3 of last season and catch San Francisco coming off a bad loss. The 49ers offensive line is a shambles but may get Trent Williams back, which means they cannot get into a shootout.

The Chiefs are on a 14-1 run vs the NFC and 5-1 ATS in their past 6 vs the 49ers.

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

Injuries aside, the 49ers have been awesome at home, winning and covering six straight and also covered the past five times they laid points at home. And that is not a short-term trend – as home dogs over their past 20 games, they are 15-5 ATS.

KC has been facing man defenses and experiencing pressure on Mahomes. SF can try press coverage or switch to zone looks to try to confuse Mahomes.

Chiefs 49ers Pick

Most bettors liked the Chiefs OVER last week against the Bills, but Buffalo’s stout defense and effective running game kept scoring down. We see the same script in Week 7 and play UNDER.

Anytime TD Props

Odds posted shortly at FanDuel

Patrick Mahomes – We expect a fat number here, but San Fran’s pass rush can flush Mahomes, which is good and bad. We won’t be surprised to see a red-zone scramble for a score while the secondary focuses on triple-teaming Travis Kelce.

Kansas City San Francisco Betting Trends

UNDER is 12-2 San Francisco’s last 14 games.

49ers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 7.

Chiefs are 14-1 SU in their last non-conference 15 games

Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against San Francisco

OVER is 6-1 Kansas City’s last 7 road games

Chiefs have lost 5 straight at San Francisco

Chiefs are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games against an opponent in the NFC West

49ers have won and covered 6 straight at home

49ers are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games played in Week 7.

49ers have covered 5 in a row as home dog, 8-1 ATS past 9 and 15-5 ATS past 20 in this situation

 

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

Bet KC SF!!

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