Feb 7, 2021; Tampa, FL, USA;  Tampa Bay Buccaneers strong safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (31) taunts Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) during the fourth quarter in Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Chiefs Buccaneers Pick, KC Wins

Neither the juggernaut Kansas City Chiefs nor the juggernaut Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been quite right this season, but both are still looking to move to 3-1 with Tom Brady’s squad favored by just a single point at home Sunday night in Tampa

The Chiefs usually win on the road (20-6 SU) and usually beat NFC teams (13-1 SU). But the Bucs have covered five straight as dogs and five straight at home to KC.

Weather may be a factor closer to kickoff. Let’s look at both sides.

Chiefs Buccaneers Pick: TB PK, Total 45.5 | Matchup Stats 

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The Bucs simply appear to lack the offensive spark to keep up with the Chiefs right now. This is legitimately one of the worst offenses in the league on paper, and they’re less likely to bounce back from a tough loss with a 45-year-old under center.


Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, and Kansas City was extremely sloppy last week in Indianapolis. The Chiefs are also on the road for the second week in a row and they haven’t been the same without Tyreek Hill.

Repeat – they usually cover as dogs and are 5-0 ATS at home vs the Chiefs.


This isn’t an easy one because Brady desperate at home in prime time is always tempting in what is essentially a pick’em, but I trust the more dynamic Chiefs and their much more spry quarterback at this stage. They win a close one.

Kansas City Tampa Bay Betting Trends

Chiefs are 13-1 SU in their last 14 non-conference games

Tampa is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 4.

Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against Tampa Bay.

Chiefs are 20-6 SU in their last 26 road games

OVER is 9-3 past 12 KC games as road chalk

Bucs have covered 5 straight at home to KC

Bucs have covered 5 straight as underdogs


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