The Los Angeles Chargers are red hot against the spread and dominating any ATS trend you can find right now. Justin Herbert is playing at an extremely high level, currently 5th out of all quarterbacks in EPA per play.
They are 6-0 ATS in their lasts six games against AFC opponents as they head on the road to take on the Baltimore Ravens, who are coming off a thrilling comeback win on Monday Night Football.
Baltimore is 8th in team DVOA, according to Football Outsiders and have won four straight and look like legit Super Bowl contenders. The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
Why LA Chargers can cover the spread
Not many people expected the Chargers to be this good this quickly. They were slated as a dark-horse team, but have launched into a Super Bowl contender through five games. The offense has been terrific. They are 7th in offensive DVOA and put up 47 points against a solid Cleveland Browns defense last week.
They are also taking down teams with winning records. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with winning records. Have they been covering against teams on the road? You better believe it. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on the road.
Baltimore’s defense has some holes the Chargers can expose. Baltimore has allowed the 4th most passing yards per game through five games. Mike Williams has emerged into a top wide receiver in this league. He had 165 yards and two touchdowns last week. This could be another huge game for Williams.
Why Baltimore Ravens can cover the spread
Lamar Jackson is on the shortlist of MVP candidates so far this season. Jackson is the first player with 1500 passing and 300 rushing yards in a 5-game span in NFL history. He has 1,860 combined passing and rushing yards this season, which is more than 18 NFL teams.
The Chargers have the 31st ranked rush defense according to Football Outsiders. Jackson will have to take advantage of this and try and attack the Chargers’ defense on the ground.
Chargers Ravens Betting Pick
I am going to follow the Chargers ATS trends and take them +2.5 on the road.
Baltimore vs LA Chargers Props
Justin Herbert OVER 294.5 Passing Yards
Carson Wentz threw for 402 yards on this defense last week.
Lamar Jackson UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
The Ravens are going to have run the ball into the end zone.
Austin Ekeler OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards
Johnathan Taylor had 116 receiving yards last week.
Ravens Chargers Betting Trends
Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games.
Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games at Baltimore
Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the AFC.
Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games played in October.
UNDER is 15-6 LA Chargers’ last 21 games played in Week 6.
Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in Week 6.
Ravens are 22-6 SU in their last 28 games as the favorite.