Nov 21, 2021; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon (28) dives into the end zone to score a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders in the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Chargers Bengals Pick, Run Game to Blame

The Cincinnati Bengals have outscored their opponents 73-23 the past two weeks and get a favorable matchup here in Week 13 as small home favorites.

They host the Los Angeles Chargers, who are dead last in run defense DVOA, which isn’t a great stat line against the Bengals and their 357 yards over their previous two games. Joe Mixon has transformed into one of the best running backs in the league and should have a huge day.

The Chargers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games, and we like the Bengals -3 at FanDuel. If you believe in trends, the past six meetings have all played UNDER the total.

Chargers Bengals Betting Pick, Odds: Cincy -3, Total 50.5 | Matchup Report 

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Why the Chargers will cover the spread

The Chargers are coming off their ugliest loss of the season, losing 28-13 to the Denver Broncos. Their backs are up against the wall, as they are now a full game back of the Kansas City Chiefs for first place in the AFC West. This game is as close to a must-win as they have had all season. 

The Chargers’ offense has been a severely underrated unit this season, as analytic darlings are high on them. They rank 2nd in offensive DVOA and 7th in EPA per play, which is outstanding considering their 6-5 record. This team should be a Super Bowl contender with a better run defense. 

Why the Bengals will cover the spread

This year, the Bengals’ defense has been a pleasant surprise as many predicted their offense would carry this team. They are 5th in EPA per play, and free-agent signings like Trey Hendrickson and Eli Apple have been better than expected. 

As stated earlier in the article, the Chargers run defense has been atrocious. They have allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL and are averaging 10 more yards per game than the next team. It has been a massive problem that head coach Brandon Staley has yet to figure out. 

Chargers Bengals Betting Pick

I was big on the Chargers this season and still think they are a threat in the AFC, but this is a bad matchup for them on the road. 

Bengals -3

Bengals Chargers Betting Trends

UNDER is 9-3 Cincinnati’s last 12 games played in Week 13.

OVER in 9-3 Cincinnati’s last 12 games when playing as the favorite.

Chargers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games played in Week 13.

Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games

Past 6 meetings all played UNDER the total since 2012

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