Oct 4, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) prepares to take the snap against the Las Vegas Raiders at SoFi Stadium. The Chargers defeated the Raiders 28-14. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Chargers Colts Pick, Herbert Covers

Justin Herbert has never made the playoffs but his LA Chargers are favored to lock into a Wild Card slot if they can cover 4.5 points at Indianapolis in the Week 16 Monday Nighter.

The Chargers usually win when they are favored (6-1 SU past 7) and have been cover machines at Indy over the years (12-2 ATS going back several decades).

Indy is missing its best player and gets Nick Foles under center to make things interesting for the Colts and for bettors.

LA Chargers @ Indianapolis +4.5, Total 46.5 | Matchup Stats

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Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Colts are out, the Chargers are in with a win. That is major motivation, which doesn’t always translate well, but Herbert knows he needs this and has the weapons on offense to get it done.

Indy ranks bottom third in most offensive categories and near the bottom in red-zone efficiency. Importantly, the Colts lead the league in turnovers which the Chargers will exploit.

Indy has also been a Monday Night slouch, winning just once in their past 11 games.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Nick Foles is in at QB and he has shown all kinds of moxy over the years in tough spots. Even without Jonathan Taylor, RB Zack Moss can fill in and generate some ground control.

While the offense has been sketchy, the defense has been solid ranking well in yards allowed per drive and third-down efficiency. Foles is the wild card here and 4.5 points is a weird number that can easily spark at home dog cover.

Chargers Colts Pick

This week’s must-win games have been largely won by the teams needing it most. The Chargers will cover 4.5 points going away at Indy on MNF.

Monday Night Football Trends

Chargers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games at Indianapolis

UNDER is 14-5 Indianapolis’ last 19 games.

UNDER is 11-3 Indianapolis’ last 14 conference games

Colts are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games played on a Monday.

UNDER is 7-2 LA Chargers’ last 9 games played on a Monday

Colts are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as the underdog.

Chargers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games as the favorite.

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