The Chiefs have not been very profitable against the spread as of late, running up a wallet-draining 1-11-1 ATS mark in their last 13 games. They are coming off a heartbreaking loss on Sunday Night Football against the Ravens, leading by 13 points heading into the 4th quarter.
The Chargers lost 20-17 to the Cowboys in a game that did not go as Sportsbooks predicted. Everyone expected a shootout. Instead, they got a last-second 56-yard field from Greg Zuerlein to give the Cowboys the win.
Justin Herbert threw a crucial red zone interception that cost the Chargers the game. These teams are 1-1 and need a win to keep pace with the Raiders and Broncos at the top of the AFC West.
Why L.A Chargers can cover the spread
Herbert still looked solid in the loss against Dallas. He must cut out the costly turnovers, but head coach Brandon Staley has to be impressed with what he has seen from his second-year quarterback through two weeks. Herbert threw for 338 yards and a touchdown and will face a struggling Chiefs defense.
The Chiefs’ run defense is on a historically alarming pace. Granted, it has only been two weeks, but the numbers are staggering. Football Outsiders has them as the 32nd DVOA run defense. They have allowed the most rushing yards in the league. The Bills are 31st, and they are still 79 yards behind the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have also struggled against the pass. They are dead last in total yards allowed and 20th in passing yards allowed. This is a perfect defense to bounce back against.
Why Kansas City can cover the spread
The betting MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes has been as advertised to start the season. He is the top-ranked DVOA quarterback according to Football Outsiders and is third in passing yards.
The Chiefs offense as a whole has not missed a beat from last year. They are 9th in yards per game and 3rd in points per game. And while they come off a loss, they remain a dominant September team and own a 10-1 ATS the past 11 seasons in Week 3.
Chargers Chiefs Betting Pick
Buckle up. I am taking the Chargers to win this game outright. The Chargers have allowed the 4th fewest passing yards per game. If there is a coach who can shut down this Chiefs offensive attack, it’s Brandon Staley. Chargers cover and win the game outright.
LA Chargers KC Chiefs Props
Austin Ekeler OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards
The Chiefs have allowed the 3rd most rushing yards to running backs this season. Ekeler is going to have a huge day.
Jared Cook OVER 36.5 Rushing Yards
The Chiefs have allowed the second-most receiving yards to tight ends through two games. Cook and Herbert are starting to develop nice chemistry.
Travis Kelce OVER 89.5 Receiving Yards
Brandon Staley is going to take Tyreek Hill out of the game. That means Kelce will get his yards.
Chargers Chiefs Betting Trends
Chiefs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 3.
Chargers are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games against Kansas City
Chargers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 3
Chiefs are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games
Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games at home