If it feels like we just analyzed this game, we did – back in January when the Lions edged the Rams in a playoff game. Fast forward nine months and the same storylines of traded QBs aiming for NFC supremacy exist.
We are back at Ford Field again with the Lions favored by a field goal and boasting a powerfully balanced offensive attack. Jared Goff has weapons up top and out of the backfield while the Rams appear healthy and boast Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp.
Does that equate to an easy OVER bet? Buyer beware, the past three meetings all went UNDER, all with totals closing in the 50s, just like this one.
Rams Lions Pick: Odds LA -3.5, Total 51 | Matchup Report
Why the Lions can cover the spread
They ranked Top 5 in both rushing and passing offense last year and have bolstered the defense. Detroit seems to have their identity and got a taste of winning last year, something they won’t want to stop tasting.
The defense ranked second against the run but Bottom 5 in passing, so they added secondary help through the draft. They won’t need to be a dominant unit for the Lions to win a lot of games because the offense is so good.
As good as the Rams were to close last season (6-1 ATS), they don’t come up big as underdogs historically losing 9 of 11 SU overall when catching points. And missing starting LT Alaric Jackson (suspension) can cause problems for Stafford’s blind side.
Why the Rams can cover the spread
Experience and health are both on the Rams’ side here as they look to build on a strong finish to 2023. They have a knack in openers as well, winning and covering 6 of the past 7 seasons.
And while we brag about the Lions offense, what’s wrong with Stafford and Kupp combined with dynamic RB Kyren Williams and record-setting Puka Nacua? The Rams have proven a great early season bet the past few years, going 16-5 SU, 15-6 ATS in their last 21 in September.
Rams Lions Pick
It feels like a square play, just like Friday’s OVER bet between the Eagles and Packers. But two explosive offenses playing in a nice warm dry dome to start the season sounds like another game pushing the 60s, so we put on our Square Hat and bet this thing way OVER the total. The Lions? They have played OVER in Week 1 12 of the past 13 seasons. We also see the Lions covering.
Lions Rams Betting Trends
OVER is 12-1 Detroit’s last 13 games played in Week 1.
Rams are 6-1 SU and ATS past 7 season openers
Lions are 10-1 SU in their last 11 Sunday home games.
Lions are 23-7 ATS past 30 games
Lions are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 conference games
Rams are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games as the underdog.
Rams are 16-5 SU, 15-6 ATS in their last 21 in September.
Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.
