Sep 26, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Rob Gronkowski (87) is stopped by Los Angeles Rams safety Nick Scott (33) after a catch in the second half of the game at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Rams Buccaneers Pick, Total Too High?

Bettors already leaning Rams as small underdogs at Tampa Bay might be encouraged by historical events involving these teams.

The LA Rams have won five straight playoff games as small road dogs (3.5 points or less) while the Buccaneers have lost three straight games as small home playoff chalk (3.5 points or less). The Tampa games are ancient history from 2008 and earlier, but the Rams streak continued through last season when they won in Seattle.

Both teams come off easy Wild Card wins and both teams rediscovered a running game with Cam Akers returning from injury and Tampa getting production from Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Giovani Bernard. The line (-3 at Draft Kings, still offering a Bet $5, get $280 in free bets if you win promotion)) seems about right for two evenly matched teams, we don’t expect odds to move off that number pending injuries or Covid nonsense.

Rams Buccaneers Pick, Odds -3, Total 48.5 at Draft Kings | Matchup Report

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Why the Rams can cover the spread

Von Miller had a terrific Wild Card game and a pass-rush tandem with Donald finally looked menacing against Arizona. We mention below that Brady gets the ball out quickly, but the Eagles sacked him four times last week. What might Miller + Donald do on Sunday?

With Akers and Sony Michel, the Rams run game can also do damage and keep handsome Tom off the field for long stretches. They didn’t need a big game from Cooper Kupp against the Cards, but expect him to abuse the Bucs secondary, while making room on the other side for Odell Beckham jr to operate.

If Matthew Stafford can cure his INT disorder and minimize errors, this is a game the Rams can grind out and win. Just like they did in Week 3 with a 34-24 victory at home.

Why the Bucs can cover the spread

Damn that Tom Brady. It doesn’t seem to matter how many running backs or wideouts he loses, he still finds a way to win – and make it look easy. The Bucs own the league’s top-rated passing game, while LA’s defense ranks 22nd. And while you might worry that Donald might wreck Brady’s passing day, realize Brady usually gets the ball out faster than anyone – even faster than Donald can abuse a lineman and get in Tom’s grill.

The Bucs defense held the Eagles to 95 rushing yards, but that stat line is misleading because the Bucs raced to a big lead and Philly abandoned the run. However the Bucs run attack looked very good, which bodes well for this matchup.

In Sunday home games, the Bucs enjoy a 10-1 ATS run over 11 games and they need this to cement a back-to-back Super Bowl legacy.

Rams Buccaneers Pick

Like most playoff games, this looks to be a one-possession score or decided by a bigger margin because of mistakes. Brady doesn’t make mistakes and Stafford looked better last week. Tampa is hungry to defend its title, but won’t get a chance, losing SU at home to the Rams. We don’t buy the high total of 55 and bet UNDER (see trend below showing six straight UNDERs when Tampa is a home playoff favorite) that number as well as Rams moneyline.

Rams ML and UNDER 55 – bet $5 and get $280 in FREE BETS if your team wins at Draft Kings Sportsbook

LA Rams Tampa Prop Picks – Anytime TD

Sony Michel +230

Even with Cam Akers back, Michel had 13 carries last week.

Van Jefferson +310

These odds are too good to pass up. He plays at least 65% of the snaps in every game.

Cameron Brate +450

He has had at least three targets in every game since Week 14. He also has two touchdowns in his last four games.

Tom Brady OVER 26.5 Completions -115 (DraftKings)

Brady is going to throw a ton. The Rams defense struggles against the quick passing game. 

Van Jefferson OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards -114 (FanDuel)

Jefferson will see some targets. I expect Bowles to bracket out Kupp.

Bucs Rams Playoff Trends

Bucs are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games at home.

Bucs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Sunday when playing at home.

OVER is 10-2 Rams’ last 12 games as the underdog.

Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against Tampa Bay.

As playoff home favorite, Bucs have played all six games UNDER since 1997

Rams Buccaneers Pick – Prop predictions coming soon….

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