Dolphins Bills Picks, TNF James Cook Props

The Dolphins have looked bad and they head to Buffalo for the Week 3 Thursday Nighter knowing they have 13 of the last 14 trips there.

They are double-digit dogs and have been a toothless 3-14 ATS as a dog in 17 recent games. They have all failed to cover 6 straight September games.

Buffalo meanwhile has won 11 straight at home but have struggled to cover as double-digit home chalk (1-6 ATS past 7 times).

Miami @ Buffalo -11.5, Total 49.5 | Matchup Stats

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Double digits is always an invitation for a back-door cover as a garbage-time TD can falsely color a blowout. And Miami does have firepower even if it hasn’t shown p so far.

And the Buffalo defense has been shredded so far, but the offense has scored 71 points in two games.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo smacked the Jets last week following up their epic rally against the Ravens in Week 1. If beating up on bad teams and winning SU at home is their MO, then this game checks the boxes for a Bills cover.

Dolphins Bills Picks

There are UNDER trends galore here as both teams have trended heavily UNDER on short weeks (17-4 for Miami, 9-2 for Buffalo). Miami has allowed 33 points in each of their losses so far, so let’s give Buffalo 33 – maybe 13 for the Dolphins still keeps this game UNDER.

Bills Dolphins Prop Bets

James Cook – Anytime TD + OVER 12 receiving yards – we like to Cook to continue his explosive ways and to exploit the Miami defense inability to stop RBs out of the back field.

Bills Dolphins Betting Trends

Bills won 11 straight at home SU

Dolphins 1-13 SU in its last 14 games at Buffalo.

UNDER is 9-2 Miami’s last 11 games on the road.

OVER is 10-1 Miami’s last 11 games at Buffalo.

Dolphins played 5 straight divisional OVERs

Dolphins 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games in September.

UNDER is 17-4 Miami’s last 21 games played on a Thursday.

UNDER is 9-2 Buffalo’s last 11 games played on a Thursday.

Dolphins is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games as the underdog, 3-18 SU past 21

Bills 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games in September.

Bills had failed to cover 6 in a row as double-digit home chalk before pounding the Jets last December