Oct 20, 2019; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Cole Beasley (10) celebrates his touchdown against the Miami Dolphins during the fourth quarter at New Era Field. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Dolphins Bills Prediction, Tua OVER

Our first Game of the Year and Miami gets its biggest test and opportunity to prove it is legit as 2.5 point underdogs at the Buffalo Bills.

Likewise Buffalo gets its chance to smack a young buck and prove they are Kansas City’s equal at the top of the AFC title contention. The Dolphins put up 70 a week ago, while the Bills own plenty of top-end offensive threats, which makes the high total of 54 seem somewhat low.

Some curious trends for Miami when the calendar flips to October – they are just 1-7-1 ATS in their past nine games in this month. They have also been a Week 4 disaster a 1-12 SU past 13 seasons, while failing to cover the past eight years in Week 4.

Then there is that 11-1 SU run Buffalo enjoys in matchups here at home.

Dolphins Bills Betting Prediction: Odds BUF -2.5, Total 54 | Matchup Report

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Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Any team that scores 70 (and could have probably hit 80 easily) is a threat to score big. They actually catch an extra three points here.

Tua Tagavailoa forced his way into MVP chatter and a strong showing here will make him a favorite. He has weapons aplenty but can the Dolphins defense handle a powerful Bills offense and their Superman QB Josh Allen?

They have covered 6 straight games and are 8-1 ATS in their past 9 games within the AFC East.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo always beats Miami here, but these 2023 Fins might be a different kettle of fish. Regardless, Buffalo has romped to consecutive wins and are motivated to get ahead in the AFC East race.

The defense can badger Tua, as the secondary leads the league in interceptions and they rank second in sacks. Maybe they fluster Tua and his fishy friends and this game doesn’t hold much drama after all.

The offense has underrated ground attack and flashy WRs in Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs.

Dolphins Bills Betting Prediction

The game could come down to a last second FG, meaning 3 points is push territory. Despite the hype, we still see lots of scoring here which makes us trend OVER the number. If we are forced to bet the spread, we might buy a half point and get the Bills at -2.5 so that game-ending field goal cashes for us.

Miami Buffalo Prop Picks

Tua OVER 300 passing yards, alternate prop +150 – Tua needs only to hit a few big catch-and-run balls for his speedy wideouts for this to be achievable. Its possible this is a crazy shootout in which case 300 yards is easy money at plus money.

Miami Buffalo Betting Trends

Bills are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games at home against Miami.

Bills are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games at home.

Dolphins are 1-12 SU in their last 13 games played in Week 4, failed to cover past 8 seasons

Dolphins have covered 6 straight games

Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 divisional games

Dolphins are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games played in October.

Dolphins have played OVER 5 straight games as underdogs

Bills are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games, but 1-4 ATS

UNDER is 9-1 Buffalo’s last 10 games played in Week 4

Upcoming Games

Aug 1st, 8:00 PM

Houston +5.5 -122

Chicago -5.5 -122

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Aug 8th, 7:00 PM

Carolina

New England

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Aug 8th, 7:00 PM

Detroit

NY Giants

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