Jan 3, 2021; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie (19) returns a punt for a touchdown against the Miami Dolphins in the second quarter at Bills Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Dolphins Bills Prediction, UNDER, Hill TD

Sometimes playing the ‘weather card’ is handicapping a game is a cop-out, sometimes it’s legit. Enter legit weather concerns for the Miami Dolphins as they visit Buffalo in the late Saturday game in Week 15.

The forecast is wind and rain or snow, un-Florida-like condition which favor the Bills. And the aerial attack of the Dolphins can’t possible flourish as well as a measured short-passing attack from Buffalo?

Buffalo usually wins as favorite, Miami usually loses in Buffalo (3-14 SU) and the spread lands right on 7 so far at FanDuel.

Dolphins Bills Prediction: Odds BUF -7.5, Total 44.5 | Matchup Stats

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Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Big-play weapons Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill could bust this game open and Buffalo hasn’t exactly been blowing teams out. And the running game with Mostert and Wilson should be better than Week 14, which gives them some balance if the weather is miserable.

It only takes a few touches for the Dolphins to put up 21 points.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

They boast a better defense even with injury problems and their offense is better balanced for a shitty weather day. They have dominated the Fins here over the years with a 14-3 SU mark and the Dolphins are just 1-5 ATS in their past 6 road games.

Miami struggled to get its ground game rolling a week ago and its offense was slowed by press coverage by the Chargers secondary. Buffalo should copy that plan and keep this a low-scoring affair they can cover.

Dolphins Bills Prediction

The total has been bet to 44.5 from 42 points and we see weather combined with a commitment to the run on both sides will keep this game under 40. The spread makes us nervous, but a 20-17 type of score seems to fit the narrative here.

Miami Buffalo Anytime TD Props

Tyreek Hill + 145 – So hard to keep the ball out of Hill’s hands (he even scooped a fumble for a TD last week). Buffalo corners still work in progress, this is great value for a great receiver.

Devin Singletary +175 – Miami stops TEs, so its down to RBs and WRs (and of course Josh Allen). We see Singletary with a big role here and rewarded with red-zone touches.

Dolphins Bills Betting Trends

Bills are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games as the favorite.

Dolphins are 3-14 SU, 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games at Buffalo.

Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road

Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Saturday.

OVER is 9-3 Buffalo’s last 12 games played on a Saturday.

UNDER is 9-2 Buffalo’s last 11 games as the favorite

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