Dec 10, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and quarterback Blaine Gabbert (9) on field against the Buffalo Bills prior to a game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Dolphins Chiefs Picks, Pacheco Wild Card Props

Miami limps into Kansas City for Wild Card Weekend and catching a surprisingly small number on the spread.

The line opened at 3.5 and grew quickly to 4, despite the Chiefs underwhelming season and consecutive weak losses to end the campaign. They will be far healthier than the Fins and should be better suited to handle the freezing conditions forecast for Saturday night.

Miami usually loses as the underdog and have won just once as a playoff road dog since 1980. KC meanwhile almost always beats AFC teams.

Dolphins Chiefs Picks: Odds KC -4, Total 44 | Matchup Report

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Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Tyreek Hill and Raheen Mostert are gimpy, Jaylen Waddle and a slew of defenders are out. But what Miami does well- – run the ball – is something the Chiefs do poorly – stop the run.

Miami ranks first in the league in yards per rush while KC ranked in the bottom 5 in defensive run stop efficiency. KC’s once-mighty offense is far from that, so getting ahead of the Chiefs may cause problems and force KC to press.

Despite their warm-weather bias, they are 5-1 ATS in their past 6 games in January and look to make it 6-1 here. And Tua to Tyreek is a threat every down.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Dolphins are decimated on both sides of the ball and could be primed for a quick fade here if KC can grab an early lead. Miami rarely surprises as an underdog, whether in regular season or playoffs.

While KC’s home clout hasn’t been as heavy this year, its still a home playoff game in freezing weather and all signs point to KC here. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been himself all season, mainly because of his butter-fingered receivers, but its playoff time now.

Dolphins Chiefs Picks

Savvy bettors grabbed this point spread early when it was 3.5 points because conventional wisdom suggests this could climb to 5 or 5.5 by kickoff. We would predict the Chiefs to cruise here and all kinds of trends point UNDER before we even consider the weather. We will play fave and UNDER.

Chiefs Dolphins Prop Bets

Isiah Pacheco OVER 84.5 combined scrimmage yards at Draft Kings – Pacheco runs hard and fast and his style could wear out the Dolphins early. It won’t all be running, as Mahomes check-downs should also find Pacheco here.

Tyreek Hill Anytime TD +135 at Draft Kings – whether its hand-offs or bombs or quick hitters, Hill will need to touch the ball for Miami. And every time he touches it, he could score. His quickness in the red zone makes him a top target there too.

Miami Kansas City Betting Trends

Dolphins are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games as the underdog

Chiefs are 15-3 SU in their last 18 conference games

UNDER is 17-4 Kansas City’s last 21 games at home

UNDER is 12-3 Kansas City’s last 15 games played on a Saturday.

Dolphins 5-1 ATS past 6 games in January, past 5 played OVER

Dolphins have only won one playoff game as a road underdog since 1980 (@ Seattle Jan. 9, 2000)