Sep 19, 2021; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; New Orleans Saints helmets during the pregame action between the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Dolphins Saints Pick, Under 37 Best Bet?

If you are a Dolphins fan and extreme stats dork, you are probably thinking back to all the Monday Night road games where Miami won over the years.

Maybe not – in their past 25 MNF road games, they have won just four times. Against this backdrop and Covid madness, Miami heads to New Orleans as small road favorites in Week 16.

And they do so against a rookie QB named Ian Book who is pressed into service after Covid protocols shelved everyone else in the Saints QB room. The total is one of the lowest of the past decade (37 at FanDuel) and it might still be too high.

Dolphins Saints Pick, Odds: Saints +2.5, Total 37 at FanDuel | Matchup Report

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Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami rides a 6-game win streak and can still sneak into the playoffs after a 7-game losing streak. They are -2.5 and have been enjoying December weather with an 8-3 ATS mark in 11 recent games.

The Dolphins get to harass a QB with exactly one half of a preseason game under his belt. This sounds like a lot of Alvin Kamara, but Miami’s run defense has been stout. If they can stack the box without any aerial threat, this can be a tough day for the Saints.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

Oh boy, where to start. OK, Ian Book has never lost in the NFL…. Kamara will be leaned on heavily behind a depleted offensive line. But the defense comes off a shocking shutout of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So if they can stop Tom Brady, then they can stop Tua Tagovailoa.

It’s not impossible, but its certainly not a great spot to bet the house. The total has shrunk to 37 and that may be the best play. This could be a 13-3 final.

Dolphins Saints Betting Pick

Logic say to back the visiting Dolphins laying just 2.5 points. But trusting Miami as road chalk feels illogical too. We side with the UNDER 37.

Saints Dolphins Betting Trends

Dolphins are 4-21 SU in their last 25 Monday road games

OVER is 9-2 New Orleans’ last 11 Monday home games

Dolphins are 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.

Dolphins are 8-3 ATS past 11 December games

Saints are 15-4 SU in their last 19 non-conference games

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