Aug 28, 2021; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) walks to the field prior to the game against the Green Bay Packers at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Vikings Bills Pick, Allen Elbow Questions

Josh Allen active or Josh Allen inactive – the most important betting fact you can gather as Minnesota visits Buffalo in Week 10 is the Bills QB’s status.

His elbow injury from the Jets loss last week has him ‘hour by hour’ according the Bills, so this line may change drastically and quickly. It opened -9.5 and currently sits at -3, meaning Case Keenum is 6.5 points worse than Allen.

Minnesota is 7-1 but questions remain if they are really good or really lucky. Or maybe both. We might not learn that answer Sunday if Allen doesn’t play. But if Minny is a pretender, a battle-tested contender such as Buffalo will make life very difficult.

Vikings Bills Pick: Odds BUF -3, Total 42.5 | Matchup Stats

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Why the Vikings can cover the spread

Any 7-1 team catching three points has value. Bills safety Jordan Poyer and DE Greg Rousseau are out, making life a little easier for Kirk Cousins and his 8th rated offense (24.1 PPG).

They will need RB Dalvin Cook to maintain his nearly 5-yards per rush clip against one of the toughest defenses he has faced. And for whatever reason, the Vikes have been a great Week 10 bet, covering 6 in a row.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo is deep and have enough playmakers on offense to allow Keenum to succeed here. If he can’t throw the ball to them, Stefon Diggs and others will simply do sweeps and run the ball.

They remain the Super Bowl favorites and hey, Allen still might play, in which case you should hop on -3 before it balloons back up to -7 or higher. And the Vikings usually lose when they are underdogs (3-9 SU past 12 games in this spot).

Vikings Bills Pick

We sit in the camp that says the Vikings are not as good as their 7-1 record indicates. If you are phony, real contenders will expose you. That’s what happens today, we wouldn’t be surprised if this game is a Buffalo romp.

Buffalo Minnesota Prop Picks

Coming soon as odds posted at FanDuel

Minnesota Buffalo Betting Trends

Game opened -9.5, moved to -3.5 with Allen injury status

UNDER is 13-2 Buffalo’s last 15 games vs NFC North division.

UNDER is 9-2 past 11 Bills games when favored

Vikings have won 6 straight and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in Week 10.

Vikings are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games as the underdog.

Bills have won 7 straight at home, 19-4 SU past 23 at home

Bills are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games

 

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