Minnesota Vikings defensive end Everson Griffen (97) celebrates after sacking Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) in the first quarter during their football game Sunday, Sept. 16, 2018, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis.Uscp 71xb6nzxky91i3cxus6e OriginalSyndication: PackersNewsSyndication: Unknown

Vikings Packers Prediction, OVER best bet?

Many observers believe Green Bay is the NFC’s best team and deserving of short Super Bowl future odds, but not many are convinced they will cover the spread in Week 17.

Editor Note: Kirk Cousins is declared out, Sean Mannion is in at QB and the point spread has ballooned to 13.5 points.

The Packers host divisional rival Minnesota, a team that beat them earlier and that is desperate to stay in the playoff hunt. The point spread is a dangerous 6.5 points, a tricky half-point hook between two key numbers.

The Packers almost always win at home and are 15-4 ATS in their past Sunday home games. All that said, the total might be the safest pick as we see a repeat of the high-scoring first matchup between these NFC North foes.

Vikings Packers Prediction: Odds GB -6.5, Total 47.5 at FanDuel | Matchup Report

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Why the Vikings can cover the spread

They did it once, they can do it again. The Vikes upset the Packers a few weeks ago, but repeating that effort will not be easy at Lambeau in January. The risk is that Dalvin Cook may not be cleared from Covid protocol, which puts undue strain on Sean Mannion. We have witnessed him come apart at the seams when he needs to do too much.

The better line of bettor thinking here is the OVER. The last game was 34-31 and Minnesota has numerous OVER trends as a road team and against NFC foes.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay’s defense has been sketchy in recent weeks, but Aaron Rodgers and his cast of offensive weapons can overcome those shortcomings. The defense is healthier for Week 17 and nobody wants to have a three-game losing skid to the Vikings.

The Pack is 21-2 SU in their past 23 home games.

Vikings Packers Prediction

We feel Minnesota will keep this close, but 6.5 points provides a dangerous hook in back-door cover land. We lean towards the OVER here, predicting a similar type of game as the 34-31 game from earlier this year. It feels like 27-24-ish to me.

OVER 47.5

Minnesota Green Bay Props – Anytime TD Picks

Justin Jefferson +240 (FanDuel)

Even if Kirk Cousins is out, this is incredible value.

Green Bay Packers D/ST +500 (FanDuel)

The Packers defense are sixth in the NFL in takeaways and will face a backup quarterback.

AJ Dillon 2+ +700 (FanDuel)

It is supposed to be 17 degrees in Green Bay tonight. Imagine trying to tackle Dillon with that weather?

Packers Vikings Betting Trends

Packers are 21-2 SU in their last 23 games at home

OVER is 8-2 Minnesota’s last 10 games on the road.

OVER is 14-6 Minnesota’s last 20 conference games

Packers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 Sunday home games

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