Sep 22, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) is injured against the Houston Texans in the third quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

Vikings Rams Pick, TNF Dogs Win

I am more than happy to cheer for comeback QB Sam Darnold – I am not willing yet to bet on him though.

Minnesota is a small road favorite at the LA Rams on a short week in a game where the Vikes usually win as favorites while the Rams usually lose as underdogs. With a small spread (3 points), does that angle favor the visitors or can the Rams with returning Cooper Kupp spring the upset?

There are lots of positive recent trends for the Vikings but the Rams are 5-1 ATS on Thursdays and profitable as home dogs.

Vikings Rams Pick: Odds LAR +3, Total 48 | Matchup Report

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

Minnesota lost on the weekend but started the year 5-0 behind the maligned Darnold’s surprising play. They should exploit the Rams No. 30-rated pass defense.

Minnesota has owned this matchup in recent with a 5-1-1 ATS mark and have been profitable road warriors 7-1-2 ATS past 10 games.

They are 5-1 ATS past six games while the rams are 1-5 ATS over the same span of games.

Why the Rams can cover the spread

The Vikings have been scorched through the air and that’s where Matthew Stafford should spend his time and energy. Kupp’s expected return makes the Rams attack more dynamic and reliable.

While Minnesota started 5-0, the Lions scored at will against them in Week 7 and the blueprint for exploiting the Brian Flores defense has been written. Pass, play action, pass.

Don’t be surprised to see a fast start from the home team and first quarter OVER could be a pick.

Vikings Rams pick

We are impressed the Vikings but are waiting for the regression. It began las week and will be hard to contain hitting the road on a short week. We see the Rams pulling this one out, we play them +3.

Vikings Rams Betting Trends

Rams are 5-19 SU in their last 24 games as the underdog.

Vikings are 21-4 SU in their last 25 games as the favorite although they did lose last week to Detroit.

Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games, Rams are 1-5 ATS past 6

Vikings are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against LA Rams.

Vikings are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.

OVER is 8-1 past 9 meetings @ Rams

OVER is 5-1 past 6 Vikings Thursday games

Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a Thursday.

Rams are 7-3 ATS past 10 as home dogs

 

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