Monday Night props: Broncos vs Titans

Titans go heavy on the run, Melvin Gordan breaks out and Drew Lock throws more touchdowns than Ryan Tannehill. Here are my favorite prop bets for tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos and Tennessee Titans. (Read my preview and pick on this matchup as well and check out hundreds of player props on Monday Night games at BetRivers and SugarHouse Sportsbook).

Ryan Tannehill UNDER 229.5 -110

I know 229 is a low number, but I don’t expect Tennessee to try and win tonight with the passing game. During the regular season, Tannehill threw more than 229 yards in six of his 11 games. When you take a look at the playoffs however, he did not eclipse 229 yards in any of his three games, and I expect Tennessee to go to that style of play – that is, heavy doses of Derrick Henry.

If it’s a Henry-heavy game, Tannehill won’t need to chuck it very much.

Melvin Gordon OVER 42.5 -110

This is my lock of the night. Melvin Gordon signed a two-year $16-million deal with the Broncos this offseason. That makes him the 7th highest-paid running back in the league. You don’t make someone the 7th highest-paid player at their position by not giving them a volume of touches. I expect him to start earning his pay with a big workload tonight, and 42.5 is just way too low a number.

Look for Gordon to get 20-25 touches tonight.

Is Lock a lock here? Maybe not, but he should simply see more red-zone throwing opportunities than Tannehill. Henry should see the majority of the touches in the red zone for the Titans, and Tennessee does not have a viable red-zone threat on the outside.

Denver has plenty of options on the outside in the red zone, and look no further than Courtland Sutton. Cortland is 6’4 and provides that big-body presence in the red zone that should be Denver’s go-to option.

The only way I see Tannehill winning this one is if they get some big play touchdowns, which I don’t think Denver’s defense will allow. Denver finished in the Top 10 in big plays on defense last year, and I don’t think they will allow Tannehill to stretch the field tonight.