Dec 6, 2021; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New England Patriots running back Damien Harris (37) breaks free past Buffalo Bills linebacker Tyrel Dodson (53) and defensive end A.J. Epenesa (57) to score a touchdown in the first quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Patriots Bills Wild Card Pick – Buffalo Cover

The struggling New England Patriots don’t catch much of a break on Wild Card Weekend, as their anemic offense goes up against the top-ranked Buffalo Bills defense.

The big question – bigger than how can the Pats score on this unit – is why do oddsmakers have this spread at just four points for host Buffalo? The line looks pretty juicy for Bills backers at FanDuel, facing a Pats team playing its worst football of the season (their lone win in four games was against last-place Jacksonville). 

The Bills meanwhile have won four straight and face a rookie QB in Mac Jones. History hasn’t been kind to rookie QBs making their playoff debuts (zero wins since Russell Wilson in 2012). Buffalo rides an 8-4-1 ATS streak as playoff favorites and I like them to keep that trend going. Take the Bills -4 at FanDuel

Patriots Bills Wild Card Pick, Odds:; BUF -4.5, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report 

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Why the Patriots will cover the spread

Whenever maestro Bill Belichick (30-11 in the post-season) is calling the shots, the Patriots have a chance. This will be the third time he gets to craft a game plan to defeat Buffalo and history has been kind to the Patriots at Buffalo (19-3 SU past 22 visits) and on Saturdays (18-3 SU in their previous 21 Saturdays).

The Patriots have won SU in their last two games as playoff underdogs and finished 10-7 ATS this season. They dominated the Bills on defense back in Week 13, holding them to only 230 yards while grinding the clock by running it every play on offense.

Why the Bills will cover the spread

The Bills offense is starting to get hot. They are sixth in EPA per play over the last four weeks and scored 27 or more points in each game. 

Over the last four weeks, Mac Jones has 6 TDs and 5 INTs and has failed to eclipse 300 yards during that stretch. Expect the Bills will force Jones to beat them with his arm with defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier stacking the box to slow the run game. 

They also usually win in the division (11-1 SU past 12 games with the lone loss to these same Patriots).

Patriots Bills Wild Card Pick

The Patriots look like a different team recently. The Miami Dolphins put up 33 points on them last week, and they are 20th in EPA per play on defense in their previous four games.  

Bills -4

Patriots Bills Prop Picks

Hunter Henry +240 (FanDuel)

He is the Patriots top red-zone target.

Dawson Knox +240 (FanDuel)

He is never over +210. These odds are too good to pass up.

Buffalo New England Betting Trends

Patriots won SU past two games as playoff underdogs

Bills have lost just once as playoff chalk since 1980 (wide right loss Super Bowl 30, they are 12-1 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)

Pats are 19-3 SU in their last 22 games at Buffalo

Pats are 18-3 SU in their last 21 games played on a Saturday.

Bills are 11-1 SU in their last 12 divisional games

Bet NE BUF

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Upcoming Games

Oct 2nd, 9:30 AM

Minnesota +1.5 -106

New Orleans -1.5 -106

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Oct 2nd, 1:00 PM

Cleveland -3 -110

Atlanta +3 -110

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Oct 2nd, 1:00 PM

Buffalo -3.5 -110

Baltimore +3.5 -110

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Oct 2nd, 1:00 PM

Washington +2.5 -110

Dallas -2.5 -110

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Oct 2nd, 1:00 PM

LA Chargers -7 -110

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Oct 2nd, 1:00 PM

Seattle +6 -110

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Oct 2nd, 1:00 PM

Tennessee +3.5 -110

Indianapolis -3.5 -110

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Oct 2nd, 1:00 PM

Chicago +3 -110

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Oct 2nd, 1:00 PM

Jacksonville +7 -110

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Oct 2nd, 1:00 PM

NY Jets +3.5 +100

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Oct 2nd, 4:05 PM

Arizona -3 -110

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Oct 2nd, 4:25 PM

Denver +2 -110

Las Vegas -2 -110

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Oct 2nd, 4:25 PM

New England +6.5 -110

Green Bay -6.5 -110

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Oct 2nd, 8:20 PM

Kansas City -1.5 -110

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Oct 3rd, 8:15 PM

LA Rams +1 -110

San Francisco -1 -110

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Oct 6th, 8:15 PM

Indianapolis +2.5 -110

Denver -2.5 -110

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Oct 9th, 9:30 AM

NY Giants +6 -111

Green Bay -6 -111

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Oct 9th, 1:00 PM

Chicago +6.5 -110

Minnesota -6.5 -110

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Oct 9th, 1:00 PM

Seattle +6.5 -110

New Orleans -6.5 -110

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Oct 9th, 1:00 PM

Pittsburgh +13 -110

Buffalo -13 -110

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Oct 9th, 1:00 PM

LA Chargers -2 -110

Cleveland +2 -110

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Oct 9th, 1:00 PM

Houston +7 -110

Jacksonville -7 -110

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Oct 9th, 1:00 PM

Detroit +2 -110

New England -2 -110

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Oct 9th, 1:00 PM

Miami -6 -110

NY Jets +6 -110

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Oct 9th, 1:00 PM

Atlanta +8.5 -110

Tampa Bay -8.5 -110

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Oct 9th, 1:00 PM

Tennessee -1 -110

Washington +1 -110

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Oct 9th, 4:05 PM

San Francisco -3 -110

Carolina +3 -110

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Oct 9th, 4:25 PM

Philadelphia -4 -110

Arizona +4 -110

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Oct 9th, 4:25 PM

Dallas +7 -110

LA Rams -7 -110

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Oct 9th, 8:20 PM

Cincinnati +3.5 -110

Baltimore -3.5 -110

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