Nov 19, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) and wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) before the game at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Patriots Broncos Picks, Zappe UNDER, Sutton OVER

Bill Belichick and Sean Payton are two of the most heralded head coaches in NFL history, but they’ll be on opposite sidelines representing non-winning teams out of the playoff picture when the Broncos host the Patriots on Christmas Eve.

The line has moved towards Denver and the Patriots have covered just four of their past 21 games. And they have lost 13 of 15 games when caching points.

With Denver laying a TD, here’s our take…

Patriots Broncos Picks: Odds DEN -7, Total 34.5 | Matchup Report

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Why the Patriots will cover the spread

The Broncos have won just two of 13 games when favored with Russell Wilson at quarterback, and they could be completely gassed after a demoralizing loss to Detroit last week. If they’re resigned, it’s hard to see them beating the Pats by at least a converted touchdown.

New England isn’t good, but just two of the team’s last six losses have come by more than six points. The backdoor cover also firmly in play here. And a weird negative Week 16 angle on Denver -they arw 1-8 ATS past 9 seasons.

Why the Broncos will cover the spread

Then again, this is also a Patriots team that was recently outscored 16-7 in back-to-back weeks against the Giants and Chargers. This team has a legit shot at the No. 1 overall pick and might be smart enough not to risk screwing that up.

They could lay down on the road against a team that is still technically fighting for a playoff berth. Go back decades and the Patriots seldom win here – 5-18 SU in 23 tries in the altitude at Mile High.

Patriots Broncos picks

I still think 7 points is pushing it considering that the Broncos have the league’s 30th-ranked scoring defense and seemingly plateaued before losing two of three to kick off December. This’ll likely be decided by a field goal one way or another.

Broncos Patriots Prop Bets

Courtland Sutton OVER 50.5 receiving yards at Draft Kings – He has been Russ Wilson’s favorite and most-trusted target and he should get plenty of looks here as the Broncos are motivated and the Patriots are not.

Bailey Zappe UNDER 188.5 passing yards at Draft Kings – we doubt the Broncos will run away here and the Patriots success will depend on RBs, not Zappe’s arm. This is a low bar, but we feel Zappe will crawl under it.

Broncos Patriots Betting Trends

Patriots are 2-13 SU in their last 15 games as the underdog

Broncos are 18-5 SU in their last 23 games at home to New England

Patriots are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games

Broncos are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games played in Week 16.

Bet Pats DEN

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