Nov 28, 2021; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) on the line of scrimmage against the Tennessee Titans in the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Pats Colts Pick, Indy Surprise Favorite

The Indianapolis Colts are 7-6, sitting in a playoff spot, and credible at the betting window at 8-5 ATS on the season. But do they deserve to be a Week 15 home favorite against the New England Patriots? 

We think not. The Pats have won and covered seven straight and are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as the underdog. The Patriots have also dominated at Lucas Oil Stadium, sitting with a 17-3-1 ATS record in their previous 21 games in Indy.

The spread is currently 2.5 in favor of Indy at FanDuel. We like the Patriots to cover the spread. 

Patriots Colts Betting Pick: Odds Indy -2.5, Total 45 | Matchup Report 

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Why the Patriots will cover the spread

The Patriots have been the best team in the NFL over the last two months, and it isn’t up for debate. They rank 1st in EPA per play on offense and defense since Week 7 and rank second in team DVOA for the entire season. 

The Patriots should not be an underdog, especially against a 7-6 team. So you’re telling me I get Bill Belichick off a bye as the underdog after winning and covering seven straight games? 

Belichick is the perfect coach to confuse a quarterback like Carson Wentz. He has struggled in the second half of games, and Belichick loves throwing curveballs at quarterbacks as the game progresses. 

Why the Colts will cover the spread

The Colts have been one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winners of four of their last five games. Their defense has been leading the charge, allowing fewer than 17 points in three of their previous four, and the other game was against the Bucs, who have the best offense in the NFL. 

The only slight weakness of the Patriots right now is their run defense. They are 19th in rushing yards per game allowed, and the strength on the Colts is their run offense. The Colts rank first in EPA per rush and second in rushing yards per game. 

Patriots Colts Betting Pick

The Patriots are 18-3 SU in their last 21 games played on a Saturday. I cannot bet against the Patriots right now, especially as the underdog. 

Patriots +2.5

New England Indy Props – Anytime TD Scorer

Michael Pittman +200 (DraftKings)

This is the best value on the Colts.

Hunter Henry +260 (DraftKings)

He leads the team in red zone targets

Rhamondre Stevenson 2+ +650 (DraftKings)

He will be the lead back tonight with Damien Harris out.

Colts Patriots Betting Trends

Patriots are 18-3 SU in their last 21 games played on a Saturday

UNDER is 10-1 Indianapolis’ last 11 games played in Week 15

Patriots have won and covered 7 straight

OVER is 15-6 past 21 meetings of Colts and Pats

Pats are 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 games at Indianapolis.

Pats are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as the underdog.

UNDER is 13-4 Indianapolis’ last 17 games played on a Saturday


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