Nov 20, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons (11) sacks Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) and forces a fumble during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Patriots Vikings Pick, Thanksgiving Day UNDER

The Minnesota Vikings have been two parts good and one part lucky in building an 8-1 record, but they were three parts terrible last week in a humiliating home loss to Dallas.

So with the stingy, streaking New England Patriot visiting in the third leg of the Thanksgiving Day triple-header, can we trust the Vikings as small home favorites? They have won 10 straight as favorites but it was telling last week when they were home dogs to Dallas. Oddsmakers usually know their shit.

The Pats have been erratic, so its tough to trust them either. However, the game shapes up as a low-scoring affair with ground attack on both sides.

Patriots Vikings Pick: Odds MIN -2.5, Total 42.5 | Matchup Stats

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Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England’s defense and running game efficiency make any week an UNDER possibility. The number is just 42.5 here as of Wednesday at Draft Kings Sportsbook.

The oddsmakers might be trying to trick us here, making the Vikings -2.5 at home. Is that a trap designed to take our money in a one-score game? Or an indication that the Vikings aren’t that good and New England can win outright here?

Bill Belichick is famous for solid game plans on short turnaround and they own recent streaks, head-to-head streaks and Thursday Night streaks over Minny.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

Minnesota usually wins when they are favored. And that makes 2.5 points at home a pretty tempting offer. And while many games have fallen their way this season, the truth is they have been competitive in almost every game (except vs Philly and Dallas) and usually won.

So in a rebound spot, Minnesota should find a strategy to beat a team that is similar to the team that crushed them a week ago. The Pats don’t have the same passing game, so expect the Vikings run defense to step up.

Patriots Vikings Pick

New England’s defense has been terrific in spurts and its running game ensures the game proceeds at a clock-draining pace. This should be a bounce-back spot for Minnesota, but we are not sure they are very good and doubly uncertain whether the Patriots are a good match for them. We will bet this thing UNDER.

Patriots Vikings Anytime TD Prop Picks

Jakobi Meyers +230

Meyers is the best playmaker on the Patriots’ offense. He has three touchdowns in his last six games.

Patriots Defense +650

Let’s take a swing. The Patriots have allowed the fewest touchdowns to opposing wide receivers, so it is tough to find any value on the Vikings. They have been the best defense in the NFL over the last month.

Patriots Vikings Betting Trends

Patriots are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games played in Week 12.

Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games.

Patriots have won 5 straight vs Vikings, 4-1 ATS

Patriots are 15-6 SU in their last 21 games played on a Thursday.

Vikings have won 10 in a row as favorites

Bet Pats Vikes

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