Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) rushes against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay.

Saints Packers Pick, MNF First Half Spread

The biggest spread on the Week 16 betting board is on the Monday Nighter where the visiting Saints get 14 points from oddsmakers at Green Bay.

And still smart money is pouring in on the Packers. Why, since the Saints nearly beat the Commanders which would have been four of five wins under their new coach?

Because those wins were against the Browns, Giants and Falcons while the Packers won in Seattle last week and try not to look past the Saints to Minnesota in Week 17.

Green Bay has covered four in a row as double-digit chalk and have been almost unbeatable in December (19-3 SU past 22 games).

Saints Packers Pick: Odds GB -14, Total 42 | Matchup Report

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Why the Saints can cover the spread

New Orleans went for a two-point conversion but lost to Washington, so they have a taste for hanging close against superior teams. And interim coach Darren Rizzi wants to win and earn the job in 2025.

Two TDs is a lot, especially for a Green Bay team that would like to cruise here and prepare for the Vikings next week. Do they take it easy? Take the foot off the gas?

If ever there was a case for a back-door cover to be in play, this is it.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay has been terrific and is healthy. They face a Saints team that has lost 10 of 12 visits here and which has been pathetic on Monday Night Football (3-11-1 ATS past 15 times).

If you think 2 TDs is too much, realize the Packers have covered their past four games as double-digit home chalk. And in frosty, snowy Green Bay, the home team is far better equipped for December football.

That weather angle gets over-used but check the results – the warm weather teams do not thrive in the cold weather.

Saints Packers Pick

Green Bay has been awesome in the first half lately, averaging 17 points per half, while the Saints have been lousy. While the full game spread of 14 points is risky because of the back-door cover angle, we see the Packers running out top an early lead. The first-half line is -7.5, we are playing it.

Packers Saints Betting Trends

Packers are 19-3 SU in their last 22 games played in December.

UNDER is 13-2 New Orleans’ last 15 games played in December.

Saints are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games at Green Bay.

Saints are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games played on a Monday (6 straight UNDERs on MNF)

Saints have been double-digit road dogs just 5 times in 20 seasons (lost 4 times)

Packers covered 4 straight as double-digit home chalk

 

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