The Saints are missing some key defenders while the Chiefs are missing half of their offense – does this spell UNDER for the Week 5 Monday Nighter?
Not so fast. Patrick Mahomes finds a way to get things done, even with his top running back and both top WRs out. What he retains is Travis Kelce who is primed for a big day with injuries to the New Orleans linebacker corps.
KC has won 10 straight (8-1-1 ATS) while the Saints come in on a 2-game slide and limping to a 3-10-1 ATS mark in the past 14 MNF games.
Saints Chiefs Picks: Odds KC -5.5, Total 43 | Matchup Report
Why the Saints can cover the spread
New Orleans could be 4-0 if not for a pair of late-game lapses against the Falcons and Eagles. Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams give the Saints solid ground punch while Derek Carr and Chris Olave have looked good.
They face a Chiefs team that is riddled with injuries and hasn’t played well all season, yet sits at 4-0. The spread of 5.5 points seems heavy to our analysis but the Chiefs do keep winning and covering. They are 7-2 ATS in their past nine games when catching points.
This seems like a bad spot for KC trying to survive without Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice and the Saints are primed to break a losing skid.
Why the Chiefs can cover the spread
They keep winning somehow (10 straight) and covering somehow (8-1-1 ARS). Winner teams win, loser teams lose.
Injuries to Willy Gay and Nephi Sewell hurt the Saints linebacker core and Pete Werner is also hobbling. This opens up the middle for Travis Kelce to have a breakout game. The Saints seldom cover on MNF over many seasons while the Chiefs dominate the NFC 22-4 SU past 26 non-conference games.
Saints Chiefs Picks
New Orleans has played 5 straight MNF UNDERs, but a weird Week 5 trends sees them with 17 OVERs in their past 22 games. Why? Not sure but its out there. We don’t buy it and see a plodding game with many field goals.
KC plays UNDER at home (16-5 run) and also on MNF (8-1 past 9).
Chiefs Saints Betting Trends
Chiefs won 10 straight, 8-1-1 ATS
Chiefs are 22-4 SU in their last 26 non-conference games
Saints are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games played in Week 5, OVER 17-5 past 22
Saints are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 MNF games including five straight UNDERs
Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as the underdog
UNDER is 16-5 Kansas City’s last 21 games at home.
UNDER is 7-1 past 8 KC Monday games