Saints Big Dogs at Tampa, Picked to Cover

Once again, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers appear to be peaking at just the right time. Meanwhile, their Week 15 opponent, the New Orleans Saints, are coming off their first win in a six-week span.

How much does it matter that the Saints beat the Bucs by a multiple-score margin when these two NFC South rivals met earlier this season? A lot has changed since that Halloween matchup at the Superdome, but it still counts for something with Tom Brady and Co. laying a daunting 11 points.

Let’s look at both sides.

Saints Buccaneers Prediction: Odds TB -11, Total 46.5 at FanDuel | Matchup Stats 

Again, New Orleans got the best of Tampa last time. These teams have gone in opposite directions since, but it might be safe to say they can at least keep it within the single digits this time — especially in a desperate spot, coming off a win and with the backdoor cover on the table.

On top of that, the Saints are one of very few NFL teams actually getting a little healthier right now, while Leonard Fournette’s status is suddenly a concern for the Bucs.

Trend Dummy pours more trend gasoline on this bet-the-Saints fire in his Week 15 report, noting New Orleans almost always wins in Sunday road games, covers as underdogs and covers on the road.

WHY THE BUCCANEERS WILL COVER

The Bucs have scored 30-plus points and covered the spread in four consecutive victories, and the Saints just ain’t right. They’ve won just one game at the Superdome this season and could be phoning it in despite an easy Week 14 victory over the horrendous New York Jets.

It’s also simply not easy to bet against Brady in a December home game right now. The lead MVP candidate has a 109.1 passer rating thus far this month.

Of note, Tampa Bay has been a double-digit home favorite four times this year and covered easily every time.

Saints Buccaneers Prediction

The Saints have lost just one game by more than 11 points since Week 2. I don’t think they win this, but I do think they stick around.

Saints Bucs Betting Trends

Saints are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 Sunday road games

Saints are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games on the road.

Saints are 16-5 SU in their last 21 divisional games

Saints are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games as the underdog

OVER in 17-6 Tampa Bay’s last 23 divisional games

Bucs have covered all four games this year as double-digit home favorites