New Orleans Tampa Bay Prediction, UNDER TDs

Tampa Bay can claw back to .500 with a Monday Night Football win at home to New Orleans, but is 3.5 points too much to lay in a game that might be a defensive slog?

The Saints have dominated their NFC South pals 7-2 ATS in their past 9 meetings, so they have a knack in this rivalry. They have also won 10 of their last 13 visits to Tampa, which obviously long predates Brady’s arrival but still indicates an ability to win divisional road games here.

Mostly, there are only negative trends on both sides, but you have to think the Bucs will win here – if they lose, they are tied with the Saints at 5-7.

Tristan Wirfs is out for Tampa, which hurts their pass protection which has been very good all season and ground game which has been lame all season.

Saints Bucs Prediction: Odds TB -3.5, Total 41 | Matchup Stats

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The defense has been pretty good, the offense comes off a shutout loss at San Francisco. But that hook on the line is a temptation in a game that would end up 12-9.

The DL should have some success harassing Brady with Wirfs on the shelf and Tampa has covered just once in seven home games and just once in 9 games as chalk.

Why the Bucs can cover the spread

Tampa remains the division favorite and have all the experience. And they face a Saints team they have already beaten and who has struggled on the road (0-5 ATS) and as an underdog (3-10 ATS).

Saints Buccaneers Prediction

Struggling offenses, stingy defenses, division title implications – this feels like a field goal battle and an easy UNDER bet.

New Orleans Tampa Bay TD Props

Total TDS UNDER 4.5, -114 at FanDuel

If our analysis is correct, TDs will be hard to come by. The UNDER 4.5 TDs scored looks tempting.

Chris Godwin Anytime TD +180

Difficult to keep a good man out of the end zone and he has been terrific against the Saints, who struggle against good WRs.

Saints Bucs Betting Trends

UNDER is 13-2 Tampa Bay’s last 15 conference games

Saints are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games as the underdog.

Saints are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games played on Monday Night.

Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against Tampa Bay.

Saints are 0-5 ATS this season on the road

Saints are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games at Tampa Bay.

Saints are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as the underdog.

Bucs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home.

Bucs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as the favorite.