Many bettors go into Kansas City Chiefs games against inferior opponents, thinking it will be an easy cover. Many bettors get in trouble this way, as KC sits 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games, and 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
The Giants are 4-1 ATS since 2017 as double-digit road dogs and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games on the road. The Chiefs are only 3-4 and sitting at a 10.5 point favorite. All trends suggest the Giants will cover this massive spread.
Giants Chiefs Betting Pick, Odds: KC -10.5, Total 52 at FanDuel | Matchup Stats
Why New York Giants can cover
The Giants’ offense will get some key pieces back this week. Wide receivers Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard will return after missing extended time with injuries.
This is key for a passing offense that has the potential to put some points on the board. The Chiefs’ pass defense has been atrocious this year. According to Football Outsiders, they are 31st in pass defense DVOA and are dead last in EPA per play on defense.
The Giants’ defense played fantastic last week. They were third in EPA per play on defense in Week 7 and caused the Carolina Panthers all kinds of problems. Now Sam Darnold is no Patrick Mahomes, but it was impressive nonetheless.
The Chiefs have been one of the biggest disappointments of the season. They are 4th in the AFC West and only scored three points against the Tennessee Titans last week. They are also 1-8 ATS in their past none games vs Kansas City.
Why Kansas City Chiefs can cover
This is a must-win game for the Chiefs. If they slip to 3-5, their season could be over before the halfway point.
The Giants could be the perfect team to play against if you’re looking for a “get right” game. Their defense was excellent last week, but the Rams exposed their overall weaknesses in Week 7.
The Rams put up 38 points on the Giants in Week 7, and there are many similarities to the Rams and Chiefs offense. Even with all the Chiefs’ problems, they are still fourth in EPA per play on offense.
Giants Chiefs Betting Pick
The Chiefs cannot be trusted ATS. Yes, the Giants are not a great team, but this spread is far too high.
Giants +10.5
Anytime TD Picks (All odds courtesy of DraftKings)
Mecole Hardman +260
He slots in as the Chiefs’ second receiver against the Giants. He is a guy you must know where he is on the field at all times.
Patrick Mahomes +290
This offense has been struggling, so look for Mahomes to make more plays with his legs.
Kadarius Toney +390
Toney had 22 targets in his last two full games. He will get plenty of touches tonight.
KC vs NYG Betting Trends
Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against Kansas City.
Chiefs are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games against an opponent in the NFC.
Chiefs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games at home.
NY Giants are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against an opponent in the AFC.
Giants are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games on the road.
Giants are 3-10 SU in their last 13 games played on a Monday.
Giants 4-1 ATS since 2017 as double-digit road dogs
Chiefs are 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 games
Chiefs are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games played in week 8.
Chiefs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Monday.
UNDER is 11-2 past 13 KC games as double-digit home favorites